4 Ways The Blackhawks Can Improve This Offseason

While armchair Blackhawk GMs across the twitters have been posting their hypothetical 2018-19 lineups of late, I’m going to leave that to those actually paid to do it.

Instead, in this article, I’m going to point out what the Blackhawk front office and coaching staff should try to achieve this offseason in a larger sense. Whether they trade Marian Hossa’s contract or put him in LTIR again, whether they draft a Brady Tkachuk or an Evan Bouchard or prospect TBD, whether they have $5 million or $10 million in cap room, the bigger question is, what are the results and changed results you want to see next season?

Not so much wins and losses (duh), but what will lead to more wins and losses.

Frankly, neither John Tavares nor Erik Karlsson will be wearing the Indianhead next season, or any season soon. And while the pain of this season has caused me to feel that what would be best for this organization would be a near- or total teardown and rebuild, that likely isn’t happening either.

So regardless of how much roster turnover we see this offseason or not, there are four distinct areas where Stan Bowman, along with Joel Quenneville and his staff, should be looking for dramatic improvement next season.

 Let’s start with the statistical insights into what is going wrong this season.

Oddly enough, as bad as the Hawks have been this season, going by the old fallback of interwebs experts and the basis of so many “hawwwt takes,” the Hawks are third in the league (53%) at even strength Corsi For %.

But let’s remember what Corsi is—aggregate shots directed at the opponents net, and by the opponent at yours.

The Hawks do launch a lot of shot attempts 5-on-5—3533 so far this season which is first in the league, and about 50 more than the second ranked team.

But less of their shots, comparatively, make it to the net—they’re presently 4^th in the league in shots on net per game. Which is good, but remember, they actually attempt more shots than anyone else, and by a wide margin.

The point?

A comparatively high percentage of Hawk shots attempted don’t go “on net”—either getting blocked or missing the net entirely.

Which likely points to where the Hawks actually attempt a higher percentage of their shots—the perimeter of the offensive zone, as opposed to closer in to the net and in the slot.

On the other end of the ice, the Hawks are 20th in blocked shots. Which is not good.

And thus, even though the Hawks have fairly gaudy Corsi as a team, directing more shots at the opponent’s net than the opponent does at theirs, generally speaking a higher proportion of opponents’ shots reach the Chicago net.

And that’s where the real problem lies—on defense—which seems to be the larger issue for a team that gives up a lot of shots on net (11^th highest in the league).

“But, but, when ‘Crow’ comes back, it won’t matter, right?”

Well, when, or if, Corey Crawford returns healthy to the Chicago crease, yes, it should (could) make a difference—as it has for the last couple of seasons as the Hawks have become an increasingly underwater team in the metrics that matter: actual shots on net.

But when (or if) Crawford returns—he will be nearing 34 years of age and coming off a serious bout of post-concussion syndrome.

So perhaps, instead of leaning on Crawford to hide these systemic deficiencies that have emerged since the summer of 2015—when the Hawks were the best team in hockey—the Hawks need to really address those deficiencies.

Here’s how:

1. Block more shots

In 2014-15, the Hawks were nothing special in this regard—in the regular season. What may have informed that, however, was the number of shots attempted against a team that typically dominated in offensive zone possession, and was therefore probably relatively low.

However, when the playoffs rolled around, they were exceptional at blocking shots, averaging nearly 16 blocks a game—eclipsed only by Western Conference runner-up Anaheim.

And during the regular season that year, the Hawks got at least 100 blocks from each top 4 defenseman.

This year, the Hawks’ two oldest defensemen lead the team in blocks, Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith with 136 and 133, respectively. There’s a big drop off from there, though Jordan Oesterle (surprisingly, to me at least) comes in third with 73 blocks in 44 games, which pro-rates out to a respectable 140-ish for the year.

But then there’s Jan Rutta with 49 in 46 games, Erik Gustafsson 26 in 23 games, And Connor Murphy with 72 in 64.

So if GM Stan Bowman is planning to improve in this area, then the recently re-signed Rutta and Gustafsson—both of whom appear to be in the Hawks’ NHL plans next year—need to improve.

As would Murphy, if he’s still around.

2. Win more defensive zone faceoffs.

The Hawks, as a team, are 23^rd in the NHL in defensive zone faceoff percentage at and 14^th in the league in the offensive zone this season. In 2014-15, the Hawks were simply a much better team in the dot overall, and ranked 15^th in d-zone draws and 2^nd in o-zone faceoffs.

That year, the team’s primary defensive zone option (after Jonathan Toews) was Marcus Kruger, who was 51% in his end. Toews was 53.7%.

This year, Toews is at 55% in the d-zone, and David Kampf is a surprising 55.2%—but that’s in just 34 games—and many more defensive zone draws have been taken by Artem Anisimov, who is an anemic 45.1%.

Why all the fascination with defensive zone draws?

Because, typically, they either lead to offensive breakouts or to opposing shots—and there appears to be a direct correlation between the Hawks fall-off in faceoffs over the last 3 seasons and their shots on net numbers (both ways).

3. On the offensive end, get more shots on net.

Very simply, as discussed above, the Hawks need to miss less shots and have less shots blocked. This would broadly indicate operating and actually initiating shots less on the perimeter—and more close to the net.

 

4. Fix the power play

Anecdotally, the Hawks’ power play appears to have been stronger over the last handful of games—however, at 15.9% and 28^th in the league, the weight of evidence suggests they need to be much better next year.

So for all the talk about drafting Rasmus Dahlin or Brady Tkachuk or the likely pipe dreams of signing Karlsson or Tavares, the Hawks should have a relatively simple set of guidelines for their offseason shopping.

1. Add a defenseman (or defensemen) who can not only skate and play positionally, but are also willing to get in shooting lanes and block shots. Stan Bowman’s work so far on next year’s defense (extending Gustafsson and Rutta) really fails in this regard.
2. Either pray that Kampf becomes a player Joel Quenneville will rely on very heavily in penalty kill and defensive zone situations (over Anisimov), or add a 2-way center who is strong on faceoffs.
3. Add a forward or two who are either bigger, or play bigger, and who can create more opportunities closer in to the net. John Hayden and Vince Hinostroza both show some promise in this regard, but neither are what you would call bona fide “road graders” who can play in your top 6 either.
4. Have a Come To Jesus organizationally on the power play: is it the players, or the scheme? Or both? Be willing to fix either, even if it means on-ice personnel or coaching changes.

These changes, and a healthy Crawford (an unhealthy one adding a 5^th point to the shopping list/guidelines above) could vault the Hawks right back into contention next season.

They aren’t the kind of “sexy” changes (Karlsson, Tavares) that part of the fanbase seems to be clamoring for, but they could correct a lot of fundamental issues with the Hawk team—putting their better, skilled players in greater position to succeed.

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