ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks’ offseason

  

With unrestricted free agency a day away, the Chicago Blackhawks are looking into an offseason of intrigue. After a draft that netted Chicago three first-round picks in defenseman Artyom Levshunov, center Sacha Boisvert and winger Marek Vanacker, the Hawks look to supplement the current NHL roster through unrestricted free agency. They have already added to the current roster in a trade with the Vancouver Canucks. The trade with Vancouver brought in forwards Ilya Mikheyev and Sam Lafferty (signing rights) and a 2027 second-round pick. 

Although additions have been made before unrestricted free agency has begun, there is still more that could be done. In this article, I will attempt to predict and analyze potential moves the Blackhawks could make this offseason. I will first identify what I believe the Blackhawks will try to address this offseason, and then follow that with players I believe Chicago could acquire to fill that need.

Acquire two top-nine wingers on multi-year deals

Although Chicago did acquire two forwards in a trade in Mikheyev and Lafferty, I strongly believe that Chicago is not done acquiring forward talent this offseason. Mikheyev is coming off both a significant knee injury and a lengthy goal drought, and Lafferty is purely a bottom-six forward. Along with these facts, Mikheyev is currently under contract for only two more seasons, and Lafferty has decided to test the market. With this in consideration, I strongly believe that Chicago will continue to look to add to their forward depth, and I believe they are willing to add forwards on multi-year deals. My criteria for who makes sense for Chicago to add is simple: Forwards at or under the age of 30 who could reasonably be signed to deals that max out at three years. Here are a few forwards I believe make sense for Chicago to add this offseason. 

Teuvo Teravainen

ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks' offseason

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It is no secret that Teuvo Teravainen may be returning to Chicago after being traded away from the Hawks back in 2016. Since being traded, Teravainen has blossomed into a productive top-six forward for the Carolina Hurricanes. In his six seasons in Carolina, Teravainen played 555 games, netting 138 goals and 277 assists as he helped guide the Hurricanes from league laughing stock to consistent playoff contender.

There appears to be mutual interest between Chicago and Teravainen for a reunion. Although Chicago and its fans may be wary of a reunion after the multitude of previous failed reunions, bringing back Teravainen makes sense for both sides. Teravainen has played himself out of Carolina, as the Hurricanes look to go in a different direction following disappointing playoff exit. With efforts being focused elsewhere, Carolina may be willing to let Teravainen walk with little effort to retain him. On Chicago’s end, the top-six was horrendous last season, and Teravainen provides a 20-goal scorer to solidify a shaky forward group.

Along with his ability to stabilize a forward core, Teravainen can be added for length without too much worry about his age. Teravainen will turn 30 on Sept. 11, which means there is no immediate concern for regression. Teravainen makes sense for a three-year contract, and Chicago is in a place where they can offer both term and cap for a player like Teravainen. A deal along the lines of three years, $6.5 million AAV makes sense for both parties. It gives Teravainen contractual security, and it allows Chicago to reach the cap floor and get a productive forward.

Viktor Arvidsson

ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks' offseason

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Although Viktor Arvidsson fails one of my criteria by being 31 years old, his scoring skill makes up for the age. After spending most of his career with the Nashville Predators, Arvidsson spent the last two seasons with the Los Angeles Kings. Although limited to only 18 games this past season due to back surgery, Arvidsson has shown to be a proficient scorer, eclipsing the 20-goal mark in five seasons. His scoring ability would easily slot him into Chicago’s top six.

As mentioned earlier, back surgery did limit Arvidsson’s play, which is why the Kings let him go this offseason. It is reasonable to believe the Blackhawks could offer a three-year deal to Arvidsson, and with his previous contract netting him $4.25 million AAV, Chicago could easily match or top that number with the cap space they have.

Jack Roslovic

ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks' offseason

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Jack Roslovic has been a much-maligned forward through most of his career. A former first-round pick of the Winnipeg Jets, Roslovic has struggled to find footing throughout his NHL career. In his eight-year career, Roslovic has never posted a season of more than 45 points and has shown significant struggles on the defensive side of the puck. However, although frustrating through most of his career, there are two reasons I find Roslovic to be of some interest to the Blackhawks.

The first reason I believe Chicago could be interested in Roslovic is his age. Although he is already an eight-year NHL veteran, he is relatively young at only 27 years old. At that age, there is still some reason to believe that there could be more to Roslovic’s game that could be developed. Although I do not suspect significant improvement to his game, there is reason to believe that some strides could be made.

The second reason I believe Chicago could be interested in Roslovic is his solid playoff performance this season for the New York Rangers. In 16 playoff games this year, Roslovic put up two goals and six assists. At a little less than 14 minutes per game, Roslovic was seventh in points for the Rangers during the playoffs. His solid playoff performance could net him a solid contract with Chicago.

With these two reasons above, I believe that Roslovic could be an intriguing addition to the Blackhawks’ roster. I do not think Roslovic could command the kind of term and money a forward like Teravainen would get. Roslovic is coming off a two-year, $4 million AAV contract previously signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets. I could see a similar contract for less AAV, perhaps a two-year, $3.5 million AAV with Chicago. Perhaps an overpay, but as mentioned earlier, Chicago needs to get to the salary cap floor, and this deal would not handcuff Chicago with an anchor contract.

Alex Wennberg

ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks' offseason

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Sticking with the Rangers, Alex Wennberg could be another free agent target for the Blackhawks come Monday. Wennberg is a 10-year NHL vet who has spent most of his career as a middle-six center. This last season, Wennberg split his time between the Seattle Kraken and the Rangers, putting up 30 points in 79 regular season games. Wennberg had only two points in 16 postseason games this year.

More of a defensive-minded center than a scoring forward, Wennberg could provide Chicago with a center who can be slotted anywhere in the middle six, and in a worst case scenario, could slot into the bottom line. Wennberg turns 30 on Sept. 22, so a two-year deal could provide the Blackhawks with consistency for a couple of years as the rebuild continues. After being paid $4.5 million per year over the last three seasons, Wennberg would probably have to take a pay cut due to underperformance, but he may still command roughly $3 million a year over two years.

Jeff Skinner

ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks' offseason

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I am once again stretching the rules to make room for Jeff Skinner, a 32-year-old scoring winger who has been criticized for struggling to play up to the contract he signed with the Buffalo Sabres back in 2019. In his first two seasons, Skinner managed only 21 goals. However, Skinner found form over the last three seasons, scoring over 30 goals in two of them.

Skinner’s improvements were not enough for Buffalo to retain him, as he was bought out from the remainder of his contract. Like with Arvidsson, Skinner could provide a consistent scoring presence to the top six. Along with this, it is reasonable to believe Skinner would not command $9 million AAV that his previous contract paid him. His hypothetical AAV with Chicago would land somewhere between the hypothetical Teravainen and Arvidsson contracts. If offered a two-year, $5 million AAV contract, I believe Skinner could be convinced to join the Blackhawks.

Tyler Bertuzzi

ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks' offseason

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A recent popular free agent target for Chicago, Tyler Bertuzzi could provide a more offensive spark to Chicago. After a career high 30-goal 2020–21 season with the Detroit Red Wings, Bertuzzi has struggled to recreate that offensive firepower. After signing a one-year deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs last offseason, Bertuzzi scored 21 goals in 80 regular season games while adding another goal in Toronto’s first round defeat the the Boston Bruins.

Bertuzzi is currently 29 years old, and will not turn 30 until February. If Bertuzzi can find that scoring ability that he had in 2020–21, he could become a solid top-six scorer. His previous contract netted Bertuzzi $5.5 million, but it was only a one-year deal. If given term, perhaps Chicago could sign Bertuzzi at only $4.5 million per season.

Acquire a bottom-pairing right-handed defenseman

The top four seems to be set for Chicago going into next season, likely consisting of Seth Jones, Kevin Korchinski, Connor Murphy and Alex Vlasic. The bottom pairing, however, remains to be figured out. As of now, it looks like Chicago may try a third pairing of Ethan Del Mastro and Wyatt Kaiser; however, I believe Chicago would be greatly benefitted by adding a third-pairing right handed defenseman that could pair with either Del Mastro or Kaiser. The goal of this signing would be to give Del Mastro and Kaiser a veteran they could rely on during the season, along with providing Chicago with more NHL-caliber defensive depth as prospects like Nolan Allan, Sam Rinzel and Levshunov continue to grow outside of the NHL. Ideally, the target the fill this role is an older defenseman who would not need to be signed to term. A one-year deal is ideal for what Chicago is looking for, and there are a few free agents who fit this mold.

Erik Johnson

ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks' offseason

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Although Erik Johnson is not a free agent defenseman who jumps off the page, he has filled the role of third-pairing right handed defenseman for quite some time. A 16-year vet, Johnson can bring experience and defensive knowledge to someone like Del Mastro. In 67 games last season split between the Colorado Avalanche and Philadelphia Flyers, Johnson put up only six points. At 36 years old and a Stanley Cup ring in his pocket, Johnson may not be a ring-chasing veteran who are usually hard to sign for rebuilding teams like Chicago. A one-year, $1 million contract makes a lot of sense for both player and organization.

Justin Schultz

ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks' offseason

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Going back to the former Stanley Cup champion well, Justin Schultz is another right-handed defenseman on the market this year. Turning 34 this offseason, Schultz, like Johnson, could provide the third pairing with consistency and some puck-moving ability. The knock on Schultz is that his defensive abilities have waned in the last few seasons, but just about any defenseman is an upgrade compared to what Chicago was running out last season.

Jani Hakanpaa

ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks' offseason

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Almost a complete reverse of Schultz, Jani Hakanpaa is a pure defensive defenseman. A late arrival to the NHL, Hakanpaa may not light up a scoresheet, but has proven to be a trustworthy defenseman in his own zone. A player like Hakanpaa provides defensive stability to young defensemen like Del Mastro, Kaiser and Allan, which would allow them to take risks and make rookie mistakes and feel confident that Hakanpaa will fill in for them. At 32 years old, Hakanpaa makes a lot of sense for the role.

Take on another bad contract for more draft capital

Although this method of draft capital acquisition has been beaten half to death by Chicago, the Blackhawks are still in position to weaponize their cap space to their benefit. Already Chicago has utilized this strategy this offseason in acquiring Mikheyev to acquire a second-round pick, there is reason to believe Chicago could do it again. In the last few days, teams like San Jose Sharks and the Pittsburgh Penguins have acquired players like Jake Walman and Kevin Hayes for second-round picks in exchange for essentially nothing. I believe that Chicago can still take advantage of cap-strapped teams, and there are two targets that I believe make sense for Chicago.

Justin Holl

ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks' offseason

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Already we have seen Detroit attempt to free up cap space by trading away a defenseman with a bloated contract. It is reasonable to believe that they would be looking to part with another bad contract. Defenseman Justin Holl is a bad contract that Detroit may be looking to get rid of. Last offseason, Detroit signed Holl to a three-year, $10.2 million contract, with an AAV of $3.4 million. Just one season in and the contract is looking like a disaster for the club. In his first season with the Red Wings, Holl only played 38 games, failing to score a single goal. His season was awful by every metric. With rumors swirling that Detroit would like to go big game hunting this offseason for players like Steven Stamkos and bringing back Patrick Kane, they could be looking to free up more space. 

I could see one of two situations taking place. The first being that, in exchange for retaining some salary, Detroit only has to offer up a future third-round pick to get rid of Holl. The other situation is that Chicago is willing to take on the entire contract in exchange for a future second-round pick.

The interesting thing about making this deal is that it may kill two birds with one stone. I mentioned above that Chicago may be looking to fill that third-pairing right-handed defenseman role, and Holl is just that. If Holl could rebound to Leaf form, he could be a productive third-pairing player who could be flipped at either the 2025 or 2026 trade deadline. If not, then he is a free early draft pick.

The only issue with Holl is that he does have a modified no-movement clause. With this, he may block a trade to Chicago.

Conor Sheary

ANALYSIS: A few predictions for the Blackhawks' offseason

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On the second day of the draft, the Tampa Bay Lightning decided to clear up as much cap space as they could. In a matter of seemingly moments, the Lightning traded defenseman Mikhail Sergachev to the Utah Hockey Club and forward Tanner Jeannot to the Kings. It is reasonable to believe that Tampa may be looking to clear up even more space going into free agency, and Conor Sheary seems like a logical trade candidate. 

Last offseason, Tampa signed Sheary to a three-year, $6 million contract with an AAV of $2 million. Although not incredibly steep, Sheary has failed to even come close to living up to that contract. In his first season in Tampa, Sheary only managed 57 games, scoring only four goals. He has proven to be a far cry from his Penguins days, and at 32 years old, may not find form anytime soon.

Similar to Detroit’s situation with Holl, Tampa may be looking to make big splashes in free agency, and freeing up $2 million in cap could help them do so. I do not see Chicago getting as high as a second-round pick for his contract, given that Sheary’s AAV is far lower than Holl’s, however, an asking price of a third- and sixth-round pick is a solid starting point for negotiations. With free agency so close, Chicago could play hard ball with Tampa up against a running clock to free up more space.

Like with Holl, Sheary also has a modified no-movement clause. This deal falls flat if Sheary does not wish to be moved to Chicago.

Analysis

It may not be the most exciting offseason for the Blackhawks. Although Kyle Davidson has stated he intends to improve the roster going into next season, this team is still a long way from making Earth-shattering splashes in the free agent market. Chicago is not going to rush this rebuild by throwing out long-term deals to high-profile free agents in an attempt to improve the team. Instead, the improvements will be gradual, and the players acquired will be moderately better than the players they are replacing.

With that being said, it is not completely hopeless. Adding forwards like Teravainen and Bertuzzi to multi-year contracts not only provides improvements next year, but also adds consistent players in the lineup as the Hawks emerge from this rebuild. Adding a third-pairing player like Johnson or Hakanpaa provides temporary stability for players like Del Mastro, and allows Chicago to not have to put Allan in the NHL at the start of next season if they do not want to. Finally, still being in the position to swallow bloated contracts for draft capital is nothing but positive for a team like Chicago. I do not expect to be blown away by this offseason, but I anticipate being pleasantly surprised by what Davidson and the Blackhawks decide to do this offseason.

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