Analysis: Should the Blackhawks be Compared to the ’12 Kings?

The Chicago Blackhawks are in the middle of a (some might say improbable) seven game win streak. As a result, they have pulled themselves out of the basement of the NHL to position themselves in the conversation for the wild card playoff race. They currently sit at four points out of a wild card spot.

Taken out of context, one might think that sounds incredible. Historic!  If you dig a little deeper, though, you realize that not only are they only four points from last in the Western Conference, but they are just seven points from last in the entire NHL.

What does this mean?

To put it bluntly (as I often do), the Western Conference (more specifically the central division) is mostly trash. After Winnipeg, Nashville, Calgary and San Jose the drop-off in strong, potentially successful teams is drastic. All four of those teams are currently in the low 70s as far as points go, and have goal differentials of plus 20 of more. They are solid playoff contenders with a legit shot at winning the Stanley Cup.

On the flip side, the Blackhawks have 55 points and have a pitiful goal differential of minus 21. The only reason their goal differential is not minus 30, or worse, is that their power play has been operating at an insane clip over the last few weeks. They have given up almost 20 more goals against than any team in the Western Conference, and more goals against than anyone in the NHL. This team is pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes and fans are falling for it.

How are they in the playoff race then, Mister Blackhawks-hater-guy?

They score a lot of goals, too. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews are having rebound career years. Erik Gustafsson has fooled the untrained eyes into thinking he is somehow the evil Swedish twin of Erik Karlsson. Alex DeBrincat is up to 28 goals and 53 points. It is a mirage.

When you win games in 3-vs-3 OT and with scores of 6-5, you can sometimes get away with poor defense. This kind of play is simply unsustainable in the playoffs. All of the teams are good, and you can’t use the 3-vs-3 gimmick to fool people into thinking you’re actually good. A team that gives up the most shots and goals in the NHL cannot make a long run in the playoffs. Period.  It has never happened, and never will.

“But what about the 2011-12 Kings, maaaaaan? They were the 8th seed and won the cup. #AnythingCanHappen, BRO!”

Yes, they did and no it can’t.

That eighth seed is where the comparisons stop, and this brings me to the point where I dash all of your hopes and dreams. Any comparison between these Blackhawks of this season and the Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings of 2012 is hilariously and unequivocally invalid. In fact, the teams could not be more opposite and I’m going to show you why.

As I mentioned earlier, the Blackhawks are one of the bottom two defensive teams of the entire NHL. The Kings, on the other hand, were one of the best defensive teams in the NHL that season. The reason they were eighth in the division was that they had a hard time scoring goals. While undesirable, a team can be successful as a low scoring team, as long as you’re playing with a rock solid defensively. Conversely, you won’t see teams winning Stanley Cups with game scores of 7-5 consistently. In fact, the game scores will drop in the playoffs because the quality of competition is much higher. In layman’s terms, no more bum-slaying bad teams.

Let me circle back and examine the statistics for you, though. Here is the stat line of that cup champion team, for their regular season:

2011-12 KINGS
Avg age 26.7
13th overall – 95 points
GF – 194 29th Overall
GA – 179 2nd Overall
PP – 17th overall 16.96%
PK – 4th overall 87.03%
Team save % – 4th overall .925
Shots faced – 4th overall 2247
5v5 HD-Chances Faced: 2nd best (559)
5v5 HD-Save Percentage: 18th (82.26%)

As you can see, the Kings were near the top of the NHL in almost all defensive categories. They had the second lowest goals against totals and 5-on-5 high danger chances faced, fourth lowest team save percentage and total shots faced. They also boasted the fourth best penalty kill. These are all metrics the Blackhawks are on the complete opposite of the spectrum for. Don’t believe it?  Look for yourself:

2018-19 Blackhawks
(Prior to Sunday’s game where they gave up 45 more shots on net)
Avg age 28.3
22nd overall – 53 points
GF – 177 7th Overall
GA – 201 LAST Overall
PP – 10th overall 21.89%
PK – LAST overall 73.62%
Team save % – 25th overall .896
Shots faced – 30th overall 1929
5v5 HD-Chances Faced: LAST overall (604)
5v5 HD-Save Percentage: 5th (85%)

Plain and simple, the Blackhawks stink at playing defense and keeping the puck out of their net. Corey Crawford and Cam Ward have been below average goaltenders, and Collin Delia’s numbers have been slowly sinking down to earth. The Kings had Jonathan Quick in his prime, playing well above average while facing an average of seven less shots a game less. Here are the statistical breakdowns (prior to Sunday’s game) of the goalies:

Jon Quick – 26 – 1.95 GAA, .929 SV, 28.08 Goals saved above avg, 10 SO
Jon Bernier – 23 – 2.36 GAA, .909 SV, -1.88 Goals saved above avg, 1 SO

Cam Ward – 34 – 3.75 GAA, .891 SV, -12.88 Goals saved above avg
Collin Delia – 24 – 2.98 GAA, .923 SV, 6.19 Goals saved above avg
Corey Crawford – 34 – 3.28 GAA, .902 SV, -4.90 Goals saved above avg

What does this all mean? It means that the Blackhawks are a bad team masking huge holes in their own end with high scoring. Similar to the 2017 playoffs when players like Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Jonathan Toews and Richard Panik had Chicago well above the league average in scoring but could not maintain that level of play against the Nashville Predators. Smoke and mirrors.

The difference between the 2017 and 2019 Blackhawks, though, is that Corey Crawford and Scott Darling had a combined .920 save percentage that season. The defense (and some may say the high end scoring) were immensely better.  They were able to win more one-goal, and overtime games. The Blackhawks were also able to maintain a much more respectable goal differential of plus 31, as well. Something these 2019 Blackhawks simply cannot do.

One might say, “yeah, but they are a late bloomers. It took them time to figure it out. What bout since the first of January? I betchoo that’s it!”

Funny you should mention that. Granted the Blackhawks are only a bit over a month into the new year, but here are the numbers:

Teams since January 1st of respective years
Blackhawks
13th overall – 17 points
GF – 57 – 4th Overall
GA – 52 – 24th Overall
PP – 39.1% – BEST overall
PK – 72.1% – LAST overall
Team save % – 15th overall .921
Shots faced – 30th overall 419
5v5 HD-Chances Faced: 31st overall (165)
5v5 HD-Save Percentage: 5th (85.93%)

KINGS
13th overall – 51 points
GF – 64 – 29th Overall
GA – 56 – 2nd Overall
PP – 18.6% – 11th overall
PK – 85.9 – 9th overall
Team save % – 6th overall .933
Shots faced – BEST overall 840
5v5 HD-Chances Faced: BEST Overall (275)
5v5 HD-Save Percentage: 17th (81.52%)

This is still not a promising stat line. The one major factor that has been putting the Blackhawks into the win column has been their power play. Of their seven wins in their current streak, four are against non-playoff teams. In two of the three wins against playoff teams, they needed multiple power play goals to win.  When the power play levels out (and it will), the wins will be harder to come by.

I cannot ignore that their schedule favors a strong finish to the regular season against quite a few bad teams, but they would have to continue on their current pace of 5 plus game winning streaks for the rest of February and March and all the teams around them would have to play .500 or less hockey.

So, after throwing a plethora of stats at you, I want to wrap this up in a nice tight little package.  While the Blackhawks could conceivably continue this regular season run and qualify for the playoffs, making it out of the first round against one of the toughest Western Conference teams is not even remotely realistic or probable.

Basically, the Blackhawks and Kings would be similar only in standings position.  The Blackhawks are not capable of more than 4-5 playoff games.

I agree with the fans that say that Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook and Crawford will not likely “tank” on purpose, but Stan Bowman can move players around and make it hard to climb up the standings. Great teams are not built without high end draft choices. The organization spent the last two drafts drafting potential high end defensemen and, this year, they can add a potential high-end forward that can be cost controlled and slot into the lineup within a year or two.

That is a recipe for long term success, which can put the Blackhawks back in the conversation for more Stanley Cup championships for several years to come, rather than kicking that can down the road over and over. No one wants to endure years of more mediocre-to-bad hockey and waste what is left of Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane prime years. Stan Bowman and the rest of the front office need to be making shrewd moves with trades and salaries or we have all seen the last of the top echelon Blackhawks for a long time.