In 2 months, Blackhawk GM Stan Bowman faces perhaps the biggest trade deadline of his career, or at least a momentous choice on which way to take his team.
How the Blackhawks play over the next several weeks will go a long way in determining the overall direction of the franchise, and any moves GM Stan Bowman may make at the trade deadline. Repeating a now oft-mentioned metric here on The-Rink.com, today the Hawks sit at 33 points in 30 games and just out of the playoffs, which projects to about 90 points for the season. Last year, it took 94 points to secure the last wildcard spot in the Western Conference.
Assuming the Hawks are about where they are today—or even slightly better toward mid February—Bowman has an unfamiliar predicament. Does he buy, as he has the last several seasons, or sell—in what is always a seller’s market?
As I said above, the outcome of the games may dictate his stance, and resulting moves. But here are three possible scenarios.
Scenario 1: buying
So, let’s assume for a minute, on the positive side, the Hawks get really hot and climb back into the divisional playoff picture (top 3 teams in the Central), thereby starting to look like a team that can do some damage in the playoffs.
At that point, at least in theory, Bowman is almost obligated to become a buyer. One thing we’ve all seen this season, and you have to think the team has, is that the “core” isn’t getting any younger—go for one more Cup.
Scenario 2: basically standing pat
However, what is the actual “cost” of “buying?” As Gatekepper pointed out on the last RinkCast, just because Bowman has a couple/few million dollars in cap space with which to take on a larger salary, that doesn’t mean another team is out there waiting to give the Hawks a key piece for their Cup run.
Bowman would have to surrender a quality asset, in order to add that ket piece. And who does he have to send—who can he afford to part with?
Because never in the last decade has the mantra of ‘don’t mortgage the future” carried more gravity.
So it’s also possible, quite possible, that Bowman essentially does nothing at the deadline, becoming neither a buyer of any significance, nor a seller. Maybe you move a spare part, like Michal Kempny has apparently become, for a draft pick. Meh. And the Hawks play out this season and a possible playoff spot—and likely early exit.
Scenario 3: selling
This is where things get interesting.
Let’s say the next several weeks go much the same as the Hawks’ season has so far, or possibly a bit worse, and not only are the Hawks looking up at playoff teams, but the process has revealed more systemic flaws, and more disappointment in key veterans.
If you’re already starting to wonder, as an organization, where we go from here, one of those answers is: start getting serious about rebuilding. And a deadline sale, in a seller’s market, is a great way to acquire multiple assets to rebuild with.
Sure, there are No Movement Clauses all over the Hawks’ salary spreadsheet, but those don’t actually prevent trades unless a player refuses to waive. Sometimes they do when approached, and sometimes they don’t. Because sometimes, the appeal of going to a legit Cup contender—perhaps to play in one’s hometown or with a junior hockey buddy or for a favorite coach, and to get out of a stale situation—is quite appealing.
It all depends.
What likely happens
In my opinion, scenario 2 is the most likely, followed by #1, then #3.
These are not just personnel decisions, or even financial decisions, they’re also big, career-impacting decisions for GMs.
To become sellers would require the Hawks to have a very frank dialogue with fans that would likely impact ticket sales and corporate sponsorship quite directly for the next 2-3 years. It’s the best way to really kickstart a rebuild, but it’s the hardest road to take financially and politically.
To buy is dangerous for the reasons already expressed here—it kicks the rebuild can down the road at the cost of a rebuild asset or two—and it’s a bigger risk if you don’t realistically have a shot at another Cup to begin with.
To stand pat is relatively easy to manage—politically. You can always spout the corporate line: “we’re always looking to improve the team, but we really like the guys we have and we’re ready to contend this year with this group.” Or you can start talking about how Dylan Sikura is the next savior of the franchise-—something Bowman has already begun doing.
So my early spidey sense on this trade deadline—albeit in mostly speculative mode at this point— is just that: don’t expect much one way or the other. Could change, and if I hear anything, I’ll share it as I do.
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