The Chicago Blackhawks recently announced their signing of 2023 draft pick Nick Lardis to an entry-level contract at $896,667 annually. Lardis, 18, has recorded 50 points in 37 OHL games for the Brantford Bulldogs. Despite suffering a wrist injury, Lardis ranks third on the team with 29 goals and fifth with 50 points. Lardis was drafted by the Blackhawks in the third round of 2023 NHL Entry Draft and is expected to be returned for Brantford next season.
Elite prospects had this to say about Lardis:
“No matter where the puck arrives, Lardis finds ways to slam it into the net. He can do so while sliding backward, rushing ahead, with his feet pointed away from the target, and with instant catch-and-release motions. The winger understands how to set up his shots, where to move, how to move, and at what speed to get his stick on a pass and fire it in. He anticipates the flow of the play, keeps the puck in control of his team with short passes, and then pops open.”
Lardis was also voted the the second-most dangerous player in the OHL’s Eastern Conference in goal areas. While all of this sounds promising and good, nobody should be projecting Lardis to be a 40-goal scorer or point-per-game player next to Connor Bedard. Lardis projects as bottom-six NHL forward who can provide secondary offense, and that is fine and needed in this organization. To wishcast him as a future elite scorer is doing him a disservice.
Here are some of the things to consider when trying to forecast a younger player’s future.
Juniors numbers oftentimes do not translate to the NHL
For the people on X/Twitter who keep referencing Lardis and other future prospects’ numbers, I am here to let you in on a harsh reality. Juniors numbers often do not translate to the NHL. While historically good junior players have been stars, like Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Connor McDavid and the young Connor Bedard, that is typically not the norm.
There have been other players with great seasons who have not panned out in the NHL, Rob Schremp and Stan Drulia are two prominent OHL examples.
Stan Drulia
Stan Drulia is an older example, but he had a historic OHL season in 1988–89. While he was 20, he recorded 52 goals and 93 assists in 47 games with the Niagara Falls Thunder. He capped off his OHL career with a record 479 points. Drulia played three seasons in the NHL appeared in 127 games and had 27 NHL points.
Rob Schremp
Onto the modern example of Rob Schremp. Schremp had a historic OHL season in 2005–06 with the London Knights. Schremp recorded 155 points in 57 games (57 goals and 88 assists). His 2.544 points per game that season ranks ninth all-time in the OHL. His teammate, Dave Bolland, had 57 goals and 73 assists. Both Schremp and Bolland powered the Knights to a runner-up finish in the OHL final. As we know, Bolland went onto have a successful NHL career and win multiple Stanley Cups with the Blackhawks; however, his offensive numbers never translated to the NHL. Bolland became a third-line player with 37 points as his career high in 2010–11 and the 2011–12 seasons. Schremp’s NHL career took a different path than Bolland’s. Schremp appeared in five NHL seasons with a career high of 26 points in 2010–11 with the Islanders. He was drafted 25th overall by the Edmonton Oilers in the 2004 draft.
All of this means that even if you have a historic OHL season, that does not mean you are guaranteed a successful NHL career, let alone as an elite producer.
Consider their draft status
As I have stated in a prior article, the lower you are picked in the NHL draft, the less likely you are to appear in 100 NHL games, so Lardis already has a tough road to climb to becoming an NHL regular, let alone a 40-goal scorer.
If you look at the 67th pick of the draft over the last 10 years, none of the forwards taken have ever scored 40 goals at the NHL level. In 2014, Warren Foegele was selected by Carolina. He spent fours in Carolina, recording 35 goals and 30 assists. He is currently Edmonton and has notched 42 goals and 49 assists in three seasons. In 2015, Blake Speers was selected by New Jersey. He appeared in three games with New Jersey in 2016–17 and two games with Arizona in 2021–22. In 2016, Matt Filipe was drafted by Carolina. He has appeared in zero NHL games. He is currently in the AHL in the Pittsburgh organization. In 2017, Morgan Geekie was picked by Carolina. He played with Carolina for two seasons, getting six goals and seven assists. Geekie went to Seattle for two seasons and recorded 16 goals and 34 assists. He is currently playing with Boston and is certainly not on pace for 40 goals. Since 2017, no forwards had been selected at 67 until 2021. Ryan Winterton has appeared in seven games with the Seattle this season with no points. Lastly in 2022, Arizona took Miko Matikka, who is still in college at the University of Denver.
No player selected at 67 in the last 10 years has scored 40 NHL goals in one season.
Blackhawks goal scorer history
Since the modern NHL draft of 1979, the Blackhawks have only had three 40-goal scorers who were drafted later than the pick 60 in their history. That was Steve Larmer, Darryl Sutter and Tony Amonte. Amonte was drafted at pick 68 in 1988. There has been only one undrafted 40-goal scorer in Blackhawks history and that was Steve Thomas in 1989–90 season. Every other 40-goal scorer in franchise history was drafted by a team higher than pick 60. Bobby Hull, Patrick Kane, Jeremy Roenick, Troy Murray and Rick Vaive were all picked before the 60th pick.
So before overhyping prospects like Lardis, please consider the historical context of where they were drafted and know juniors numbers do not always translate. We all hope prospects can exceed expectations, but in order to do so, there must first be realistic expectations.