The truth may not lie in either the “too many hard miles” or “wacky diet” theories. But here’s my take—based on logic, hidden stats, and a little inside information.
First, a caveat: I’m a YUGE Jonathan Toews fan.
And so, in the context of the “what’s wrong with Toews” debate, I was a long-term adherent to the belief that it was the revolving door on Toews’ left wing, after the departure of Brandon Saad to Columbus in 2015, that was holding him back.
But now Saad is back. And?
With nearly a half season under their belts, Toews is on pace for 22 goals and 30 assists, 52 points and +11. Saad, for 26 goals and 15 assists, 41 points and +6. So there goes that theory. Or does it?
Unfortunately, we all too frequently judge overall point totals as the only metric of how good a player is. Way too frequently, actually. We also pretty directly and completely correlate point totals to how good a line is 5-on-5.
Yet, Toews and Saad are both fixtures on a Hawk power play that has been basically garbage all year. I’m not here to say that the failure of the power play overall has held Saad and Toews back. But nor am I going to say Saad and Toews by themselves are holding the power play back.
What I am saying is, if the Hawk power play were clicking more regularly overall, Saad and Toews would likely have a handful more points a piece at this point, with more respectable season end projections. And I do believe the issue on the Hawk power play, for what it’s worth, is larger than Saad and Toews.
So call this “the power play sucks” theory. Then forget about it, because it’s not really the issue.
What about Dick?
After a pretty strong 21 goal/42 point outing in 2016-17, Slovakian forward Richard Panik was awarded with a nice contract extension, and installed on Toews’ right wing—especially after the LTIR of Panik’s countryman, Marian Hossa.
On paper, and at times on the ice, it all made sense. Panik could play the physical cycle game called for on Toews’ right wing, occasionally pitch in some goals, and Bob’s Your Uncle. Right?
Wrong, at least mostly so far, anyway.
The truth is, there are a few things Panik and Hossa have in common. They are both Slovakian, natural right wings, and tremendous natural athletes. After that, the comparison kind of falls away. Hossa has (had) elite hockey sense and schooling as the son of a high-level coach. While Panik occasionally flashes some hands and moves, Hossa is (was) a puck possession machine.
I mean really, we’re talking about the difference between an aging, but still effective, surefire Hall of Fame player and a guy who is sort of a second line/third line ‘tweener.
At age 38 last year, Hossa had 25 goals. At age 25, Panik had 21.
In 2014-15 which wasn’t that long ago, the Saad-Toews-Hossa line was arguably the best in hockey:
Saad 23/29 52 +7
Toews 28/38 66 +30
Hossa 22/39 61 +17
Hmmm. Not a ton of goals there, Saad could yet achieve those same numbers this year. But a whole lot of balance. And a lot of puck possession.
So let’s file this one as the “It’s Dick, dammit” theory. And, meh, forget about that probably, too.
But what about Toews himself?
I used to dismiss the “too many hard miles” theory. I mean, how does a clean-living, 28-29 year old, über competitive gym rat with epic lower body strength just fall off a cliff physically? That doesn’t just “happen.”
Unless there’s a an underlying injury or physical condition.
So here’s the bit of inside information.
I heard from a team source last season that Toews took a back injury in the 2016 World Cup of Hockey—and played through it much of last year. At a point just past the midway mark of the season, he was feeling 100% finally—and it did show for a stretch of games at that point, where he looked like the Toews Beast of Olde.
Since then, Toews hasn’t missed many games, but he also hasn’t turned on the speed and power that much either.
Could it be the back? You do seem to see a lot of opponent cross checks going into the small of his back. But then again, even if there is a lingering back issue, why then is he playing—and able to play at a reasonably decent level?
Fair questions and likely the true answers are only known by Toews, his doctor and a few others.
All that said, there’s another theory that no one has mentioned.
Workload.
We’ve looked at how Toews’ numbers have slipped 5-on-5 and on the power play over the last few seasons. And wouldn’t you know it, it almost directly correlates with an increase in his TOI and faceoffs taken on the penalty kill.
In the Hawks last dominant season (also Toews’ last), 2014-15, he played a total of 112:00 minutes on the penalty kill and took 78 shorthanded draws. Marcus Kruger took 153 shorthanded draws that year and played 180:00 PK minutes.
The following two seasons, Kruger battled wrist injuries, so his PK workload dropped and Toews’ gradually increased. Although last year, a “recovered” Kruger took 153 PK draws and Toews took 94.
This year, with Kruger gone, and Artem Anisimov as the secondary PK faceoff option, Toews is on pace for 190 shorthanded draws and about 148:00 PK minutes.
Penalty kills are harder minutes than playing 5-on-5 and on the power play.
Another bit of inside information, I have heard for the last handful of seasons that Toews does get worn down when asked to play a lot of penalty kill minutes along with his other duties.
So if you were among those wondering why David Kampf was recalled recently over, say, Matthew Highmore, or even at all, his ability to center a penalty killing unit had a lot to do with it.
But is Kampf the answer (and perhaps Toews’ partial redemption)?
The jury’s out, I guess, but the Hawks’ once lofty penalty kill ranking has been plummeting of late. It’s presently ranked 18th, after being in the top 5-6 of the NHL much of the season, and that drop is almost concurrent with Kampf’s elevation. That could be circumstantial. But Toews is one of the better faceoff men and defensive forwards in the league—and still is despite the drop off in points.
So maybe the Hawks actually really miss “dat bum Kroooger” (or, say, Antoine Vermette) or another center of that profile to take huge hard-minute and situational pressure off Toews.
In other words, the problem with Toews isn’t necessarily the wings he’s playing with, or his diet, or getting old, or even his back, maybe its a little of all those things—plus, the Hawks have lost a lot of quality depth at center, legitimate PK faceoff options, either due to injury or free agency or trade since 2015.
And so a lot more is being asked of Toews now, especially in “low glory” (as far as producing points anyway) penalty kill situations. Situations that do drain a player’s energy within games—and in other situations like 5-on-5 and the power play—and over the course of a season.
Which is a problem if “the answer” is some rookie whose name is the butt of Hitler jokes.
But good news if Stan Bowman can go out at (or before) the trade deadline and add a solid two-way center who is also strong on draws. Which, by the way, is not easy, as that is an item that’s hard to come by at any time, especially the deadline before the playoffs.
All for now—join in on what likely will be lively discussion on the message board below.
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