At this point, with the only remaining offseason questions being when and how much/how long the Hawks will sign RFA Brendan Perlini—and whether the Hawks should have a team dog—it is probably fair to say Stan Bowman’s summer makeover is concluded.
And now is when decisions that look good on paper transition toward being put to test on ice.
To my eye, it is not just a matter of additions and subtractions, however. It is also Jeremy Colliton’s first full season as Blackhawk head coach—with his imprimateur on an unusually eventful offseason—and his first training camp and preseason slate.
Broadly speaking, the Blackhawks expended a lot of energy (and resources) this summer trying to accomplish two things.
First, they clearly wanted to become better defensively, especially in their own end, with the additions of Olli Maatta and Calvin deHaan. Both players are young, yet experienced; both are definitely defense-minded blueliners. Both battled injury last year. Both, to varying degrees, should probably be considered reasonable bets to improve the Hawks’ defensive play to some degree.
How much is an important question, because storied veterans Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith are both, also to varying degrees, on the downsides of their careers and abilities: Seabrook clearly more so than Keith. Erstwhile “fourth forward” Erik Gustafsson showed some marginal improvement defensively late last season after being put on a leash somewhat by Colliton—which also corresponded, not surprisingly, with a brief dip in his offensive output. Which Gustafsson will we see in 2019–20? Hard to say, but it is probably a safe bet his defensive reliability will continue to be an “adventure” (putting it charitably) this season.
Connor Murphy, for all that he is and is not, sort of falls in line with Maatta and deHaan, and may be more part of the solution than the problem this year.
Add in Carl “Don’t call me Calle” Dahlstrom and Slater Koekkoek—and possibly even 2018 first round selections Adam Boqvist or Nicolas Beaudin in their professional rookie seasons—and it is fair to say Colliton has more pieces around which to fashion pairings that will, at minimum, block more shots, win more 50–50 pucks in the defensive zone and provide more responsible coverage. While still generating that transition and push up the ice that drove a very good offensive year for Chicago last year.
The other thing the Hawk brass seemed to want to achieve this summer was to get a lot tougher to play against.
Now, let’s not kid ourselves: seemingly every summer, there has been a Lance Bouma or two brought in to add some more “jam,” with typically crappy results. So, how is this summer any different?
Hard to say, but looking more closely at Ryan Carpenter (UFA acquisition), Andrew Shaw and Zack Smith (trades), a pattern emerges. All can play center or wing, a couple of them (at least) are pretty good faceoff options (an underappreciated part of being a good defensive team), all can kill penalties, all have a bit of nasty to their games.
All of which, on paper, adds some elements the Hawks sorely needed last year. But again, as with deHaan and Maatta, the question is “how much.”
Shaw and Smith have battled injuries. Reports out of Ottawa are that Smith has lost a step the last couple of years. Regardless, when the option for bottom-six and penalty-killing forward roles have been either proven has-beens or developing players better suited to top-six roles in Rockford, Bowman’s summer additions should provide some improvement in subtle, yet important, ways.
So all that provides at least some reason for encouragement.
The other thing that the Hawks apparently set out to do was meaningfully reinforce the goalie position—in a way that few expected (but we predicted might happen here at The-Rink).
The addition of Robin Lehner matters this year to the extent that Corey Crawford cannot play due to injury, or if Lehner simply outplays him (also a possibility). In our opinion here at The-Rink, all things considered and in spite of the “smooth it over” rhetoric of the Hawk front office, Lehner will probably have to prove he is not ready to take over the Hawk No. 1 goalie job long-term.
Sure, the “best one-two punch in the league” narrative sounds great, and may publicly placate Crawford and his camp and those fans who thought “Crow” was going to keep “bouncing back” from concussions and play until he is 45, but this season, especially if the Hawks are still giving up 40–45 shots most nights, it may not matter.
The other thing to consider is that you cannot assume anything going into this season, based on last season.
For example, you cannot assume that Dylan Sikura will not start scoring some goals and end up as an actual offensive weapon this year. Or, you cannot assume that Kirby Dach will not play more than nine games in Chicago and provide some kind of additional contribution, which would be great.
But, you also cannot assume either of the above will happen, or that Jonathan Toews might not regress from a statistical upward deviation in production last season or that Dylan Strome will not either.
You cannot assume relative team health or, on the other hand, a season wracked by injuries.
The truth is, while the Hawks continued a now three-to-four-season-long nosedive defensively, they excelled last year offensively.
But, because the defensive trend is longer term, it is safe to assume that is more the norm (setting aside the offseason changes), while the offensive uptick was likely more of an exception.
Time and, at minimum, 82 games will tell.
But where does that leave this team in April 2020?
Hard to say because, unfortunately, the Hawks also play in what is, top to bottom, arguably the best division in hockey. That said, the first three teams in the division will likely be some combination of St. Louis, Dallas, Winnipeg, Nashville or Colorado. It is hard to envision this (albeit somewhat improved) Hawk team edging in to that conversation and finishing as one of the top three teams in the Central Division. The other Central teams are just too good, younger and either bigger, faster or both.
So then the target becomes one of two wild card spots. And this is where the Hawks’ improvement over the offseason puts them—in the playoff conversation, potentially in contention for a spot. And even if the Hawks finished say, ninth in the conference and a point or two out of playoff contention, it would be measurable improvement over last year, when they were never realistically in playoff contention, in spite of a lot of breathless hype for about six weeks or so.
But, let’s say the Hawks make the playoffs. They are still going to win a lot of overtime three-on-three games and will probably have a good power play in the regular season. But, if they have to rely too heavily on those factors for points to get them into the playoffs, they likely will not last long once there, as those factors matter less or not at all in the postseason. And remember, the wildcards have to face the division winners in the first round.
Safe to say then, with some margin for error, the Hawks end up this season somewhere between a strong, improved ninth or 10th in the conference and losing in the first round of the playoffs in five or six games.
Likely improved, but, again, how much?
What must happen:
Team defense and penalty kill must improve, a lot. If not, it would not matter if your “one-two punch” was Ken Dryden and Dominik Hasek, the team will struggle to improve over the last two seasons’ miserable performances.
What cannot happen:
Regressions by and/or significant injuries to Toews, Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat or (less so) Strome.
What should happen:
If Gustafsson wants to appear in the playoffs in a Hawk sweater, and if the Hawks want to extend his contract after this season, he needs to show he can become a consistently better player defensively—even if his numbers suffer somewhat offensively as a result.
What does not have to happen:
Although the annual pressure to elevate rookies or prospects to the Hawk lineup is as strong as ever, there is no rush to insert Adam Boqvist or Kirby Dach this year.
If Dach or Boqvist are measurably better in all phases of the game than the players the Hawks have, then this is truly a rebuilding season. And where either or both players play this year should not be dictated by what fans or team pr would like to see, but purely by what is best for the development of two 18- and 19-year-old kids.
All we have for now. Comment below.