Take a look at the schedule, breath in, breath out and settle in for what will be an exciting, yet daunting month of hockey for the Chicago Blackhawks.
With nine games against two of the top three teams in the Central Division, the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Hawks also have two games against last year’s Stanley Cup finalist, the Dallas Stars, two games against the Nashville Predators and finish the month at home against the Carolina Hurricanes. Yikes.
Following Tuesday night’s results, the combined record of the Hawks’ March opponents is 59–33–10. On paper, it will be the most challenging month to date, and possibly could confirm the direction of this team for the remainder of the season.
While I am not completely pessimistic about the Hawks’ chances this month, let’s be honest, nobody thought the Hawks would be entering March in fourth place in the Central Division. If you say you expected this, you are lying to me and to yourself. This has been surprise, and a pleasant one at that, but is it sustainable? We will find out.
There is an argument in support of the Hawks’ poor play when they began the season. Playing the Lighting and the Panthers in their first four contests was trial by fire, and instant kryptonite for a young team without an identity or an established number one goaltender. Yes, Philipp Kurashev, Kevin Lankinen, Ian Mitchell, Pius Suter and others were getting their first taste of NHL action in those first few games. Have they adapted since then for the better? Yes, they have, and out of what was to be a “tanking” season, the Hawks have arguably three legitimate Calder Trophy candidates in Kurashev, Lankinen and Suter. Lankinen may or may not be the Hawks’ No. 1 goalie of the future, but he is hot and will need to be to keep this train rolling. In addition, in those first few games, Adam Boqvist struggled mightily and has since improved in his return to the lineup. At the time, the offense was getting a snapshot of what life is like without Jonathan Toews and Kirby Dach. It was not the team’s best hockey of the season; in fact, easily their worst to date.
On paper and in 5-on-5 team statistics, one could also argue that the Hawks will simply be outclassed this month. That is very possible. Realistically, if the Hawks want to maintain a playoff position heading into the final two months of the season in April and May, playing .500 hockey in their 14-game March is the worst they can do.
Should the Hawks have a productive month, a few things need to happen.
The Hawks play the Lightning five times in March, and Tampa Bay defenseman Victor Hedman has been a thorn in the side of Patrick Kane since the 2015 Stanley Cup Finals. (Photograph courtesy of the Chicago Sun-Times)
Continued brilliance from Patrick Kane
The team will go as Kane goes, and that is not to say it is all on Kane, but when he performs, the team performs. The Hawks are 2–2–2 in the mere six games that Kane has been held off the scoresheet this season. Right now, Kane is fully charged, leading this team and is in the Hart Trophy conversation. Should the Hawks make the playoffs, Kane’s performance will be arguably the biggest part of that, and he could walk away with MVP hardware. One problem, though: Victor Hedman. If you flash back to the 2015 Stanley Cup Finals, Tampa Bay Head Coach Jon Cooper and the Lightning had a simple plan: Have Hedman focus on Kane and let anyone else beat you. It almost worked. Kane had two points in the Stanley Cup Final, but the deeper Hawks prevailed. Under that same philosophy, since that 2015 series, in 12 games against the Lightning, Kane has eight points and a -6 rating. With the Hawks starting the month with three straight games against Tampa Bay, Kane’s production against the Bolts will be a vital element in the Hawks’ success to start this stretch.
Goalie wins
Many have been waiting for the clock to strike midnight on the Hawks’ goaltending, but it has yet to happen. Despite a rough outing against Detroit last week, Malcolm Subban has been steady, and Lankinen has been brilliant. Lankinen’s 9–3–3 record with a 2.55 goals against average and .924 save percentage places him as one of the better statistical goalies in the league thus far. His 44-save performance Sunday night against the Wings was another feather in his cap. With a fairly inexperienced defensive unit, the Hawks have been reliant on Lankinen, and perhaps to a fault, considering they gave up 46 shots to the Wings. Even if they tighten up, Lankinen and Subban will need to be as good as they have been for the team’s continued success.
Ryan Carpenter and the Hawks’ centers will have to be better in the faceoff dot moving forward. (Photograph courtesy of Andre Ringuette / NHLI via Getty Images)
Strength in the dot
According to puckbase.com, as a team, the Hawks are currently 27th in the league at the dot, winning only 47% of their attempted faceoffs. In order to mitigate the amount of work on their goalies and young defensemen, having puck possession is critical. Dach, Toews and Andrew Shaw are all out of the lineup, and while Dylan Strome being out is addition by subtraction in many ways, the Hawks are lacking depth at the pivot position. Suter, Ryan Carpenter, David Kampf and Carl Soderberg have their work cut out for them, but the Hawks simply have to start the play with the puck more often. If not, the defensemen will be busier and Lankinen will see a lot more rubber. Simple as that.
Secondary scoring
Production from unlikely sources is always a key to success. Kurashev and fellow rookie Brandon Hagel have been great, Carpenter is coming off a two-goal game and the fourth line has performed at a consistent rate. Simply stated, the Hawks’ bottom-six forwards need to be better than their counterparts every night. It cannot be on Kane, Suter, Alex DeBrincat and Dominik Kubalik to provide offense time and time again. Others will have to step up.
These Hawks have been a surprise thus far, and shockingly, are in a position to prove that the first seven weeks of the season is no fluke. Fluke or not, March should be considered playoff hockey for this club, and if successful, they still will have mountains to climb in April and May. March will be a test. The Hawks are capable of playing great hockey, but proof will be in the pudding.