Twitter, the human imagination, and some less than responsible analysis out there has a way of driving convenient, feel-good hockey narratives that don’t hold up under the harsh light of realistic scrutiny.
One such narrative has emerged over the last few weeks—that the Columbus Blue Jackets’ contract extension impasse with Artemi Panarin means Panarin could be/should be (goddammit WILL BE) coming back to Chicago.
Let’s put on our thinking caps and go back to last summer, when Hawk GM Stan Bowman dealt Panarin to the Blue Jackets in the first place.
Take a deep breath and ask yourself why.
It wasn’t because Panarin is a bad player or a bad guy. To the contrary. It wasn’t even because the Hawks estimated that Brandon Saad was Panarin’s equal (they’re different style players, and let’s not go down that rabbit hole right now).
It was because the Blackhawks’ brass knew they would have a difficult, if not impossible, task ahead in extending Panarin to stay in Chicago—precisely the same position the Blue Jackets find themselves in today. So the Hawks got the best deal they could from the Jackets, which, along with the deal that sent Niklas Hjalmarsson to the Coyotes, averted another impending Cap-a-geddon for Chicago in the summer of 2019.
Now, the other precipitating event that is driving the Breadman Returneth narrative was the Hawks finally dealing Marian Hossa’s contract to Arizona 3 ½ weeks ago, creating a bunch of cap space.
The problem with that is, it doesn’t align with the thinking that the Hawks had when they dealt Panarin. The Hawks fully intended, last summer, before they dealt Panarin, to deal Hossa’s contract at some point and recoup the cap room. They spoke last summer with, at minimum, Carolina and Arizona about it—and I heard yesterday may have had a deal in place to include Hossa in the Hjalmarsson deal, before that part of the trade fell through.
Now, the Hawks find themselves in need of a box office splash in Chicago—and the highly popular Panarin would fit that bill. And certainly, if the rumors I’ve heard of a fairly hot pursuit of Montreal’s Max Pacioretty are true, then the position is open.
The problem there is the prices—both in terms of assets that would need to be surrendered in trade and in terms of average annual value of a contract extension—are going to be higher for Panarin than they will be for Pacioretty. And the Hawks haven’t been able to get a deal done with Montreal thus far either.
That’s the issue.
Panarin is a great player who would, without question, improve the Hawks in the Top 6—assuming you don’t have to hurt the top 6 too much to re-acquire him.
Now, stop thinking like a Hawk fan, and put yourself in the shoes of Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen—there is literally not a chance in hell that you are going to give Stan Bowman (or anyone) a sweetheart deal on Panarin.
Kekalainen took a risk dealing Saad and Anton Forsberg for Panarin in the first place—and although neither player ripped up Chicago last year, both could be more valuable assets for the Hawks as soon as this year. And if Panarin ends up signing in New York, or Southern California or Florida next summer—with no compensation to the Jackets—Saad and Forsberg are going to make Bowman look like a genius.
Kekalainen knew, and his boss Team President John Davidson knew the failure or success of that trade would hinge on whether Panarin helped the Jackets go deep in the playoffs (not yet anyway), and if they could re-sign him (they might not).
Today, it’s sounding more and more like Panarin wants to be in a major media market on one of the U.S. coasts—and make maximum market value on his next deal, things the Jackets or the Hawks might not be able to offer.
This is where the market drives the narrative—not silly tweets or misinterpretations of conjecture by Canadian commentators.
If the Jackets can’t re-sign Panarin by say January, he is likely going to go on the trading block—unless the Jackets really feel they can go deep in the playoffs this season, in which case, they may have to double down and pray they can work it out in the offseason.
The smart money would bet Panarin is going to go on the block at some point between now and mid-February—and the Jackets will take the best offer they can get. Which is probably more than what the Hawks, who are at least easing in to rebuild mode at this point, can afford to give up.
For the Hawks, the price would likely include Alex DeBrincat (or Nick Schmaltz), their first round draft pick in 2019, and a quality prospect like Henri Jokiharju or Nicolas Beaudin.
Who’s still lovin’ the Breadman at that price?
You can say I’m crazy, but watch: if/when Panarin is dealt, the price will be high, especially if it’s in February, the ultimate seller’s market in the NHL. And don’t kid yourself into thinking that Debrincat or Schmaltz by themselves (or any potential you imagine either has) gets you remotely close to Panarin in actual value.
The Hawks are not one $10 million player away from being a Cup team. They weren’t a Cup team when they had Panarin 2 years ago—and they have more holes on their roster today than they did then.
So, the notion of Panarin returning to Chicago really doesn’t make a lot of sense, either for the Blue Jackets, his current team, or for the Hawks, his former team.
As I said previously, Panarin is an elite or near-elite player. But the math and the market don’t work for the Hawks—or at least not as well as it should were they to overpay to re-acquire him.
It could happen. But even if it did, it probably isn’t a wise move for a team that needs to be adding (and keeping) multiple pieces—instead of blowing the budget on a trip down memory lane, however good it might feel at first.
All I have for now. Comment below and follow @jaeckel