At the time of year when seemingly everyone turns into an opinionated NHL talent scout, Johnny Buzzkill is here to puncture balloons, pee on corn flakes and possibly, maybe, alter your NHL draft board.
So who ya got at No. 3 overall? Alex Turcotte (“the next Patrice Bergeron”), Bowen Byram (“Paul Coffey 2.0”) or, say, Dylan Cozens (“a not-so-poor man’s Auston Matthews”)?
For the sake of perspective, here are the last 10 players selected at No. 3 overall in the NHL draft:
2009 Matt Duchene
2010 Erik Gudbranson
2011 Jonathan Huberdeau
2012 Alex Galchenyuk
2013 Jonathan Drouin
2014 Leon Draisaitl
2015 Dylan Strome
2016 Pierre Luc Dubois
2017 Miro Heiskanen
2018 Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Mostly good players, maybe two or three potentially or already great players. But overall, through the last decade of drafts, the No. 3 overall pick has produced as many sorta duds as true studs especially in terms of the pre-draft expectations and scouting reports for each. With maybe 50 percent or more who will never fully live up to their pre-draft hype.
And that’s the issue. Every year, the glowing accolades and projections accompanying all the top prospects are as often as not left unfulfilled over time.
In 2009, some said Duchene was the best player in the draft, ahead of John Tavares, and compared him to Sidney Crosby. Duchene has become a nice player, but…
Gudbranson has battled injury and is on his third NHL team.
Galchenyuk was sold as a “can’t miss center”—who has been relegated to the wing and underperformed expectations pretty much throughout his career.
Drouin can be a force at times, but has not really lived up to pre-draft billing.
Strome had a nice second half of the season last year, but his limitations will also likely prevent him from being a legitimate first line center on a good NHL team.
And here’s the thing to remember—as you click through raves about Turcotte’s 200-foot game, edge-work and speed, Byram’s elite mobility and moves or Cozens’ borderline freakish size/speed combination—any player remotely worthy of top 10 consideration in the NHL draft is going to look amazing against, and in the context of, other 16–18-year-olds.
And all of the players listed above—as well as many drafted around them in their individual years—had the same kind of glowing scouting reports.
Sure, there are stronger drafts and there are weaker drafts. There are also miscalculations by GMs (and “draft experts,” and fans and fans who become “draft experts”). For every Jonathan Toews, there’s a Cam Barker. For every Draisaitl, there’s a JP Dumont. Or an Aki Berg. Or an Alexander Svitov.
Each (and ALL) of whom, was going to ride in to his respective NHL city on a pink unicorn, billowing confetti and giving away winning Power Ball tickets—because he lit it up in the WHL (or similar) and someone said he was going to be “the next” this or that.
Here’s the point: don’t despair, but also don’t necessarily believe the hype.
Great players can be unearthed at pick No. 3 and at pick No. 33. Same with “meh” players. The quality of scouting has a lot to do with the relative success or failure of high picks, but so does something else: a little luck. So many factors (character, injuries, coaching, etc.) go into the real-life process of turning a can’t-miss prospect into some kind of actual NHL player.
Everything we hear at The-Rink suggests the Hawks are doing extreme diligence on this pick, and that they may not have settled yet, even if some keep saying:
“Turcotte’s the pick.”
“Byram is the guy.”
“I think they’re gonna go with (Kirby) Dach.”
Everyone has an opinion. Damn few, next to no one, actually know the Hawks plans. Hell, I had an opinion—until I decided that as a Hawk fan, I just want them to get a great player at No. 3, hopefully an elite cornerstone player a la Toews—because the risk of not getting one quite that good is high.
In spite of the hype and “YouTubes.”
And don’t kid yourselves; the Blackhawks have needs all over the ice. So, they could even end up trading down a few spots and filling more than one hole in the process.
Social media and fan message boards have a way of creating beliefs and narratives about players or a direction the team might go (especially at this time of year) that aren’t always firmly rooted in reality.
For example, the Byram narrative: “The Hawk defense stunk last year, he’s the best defenseman, no brainer.” The problem is, Stan Bowman has added a lot of first and second round defensemen the last few years—so where does Byram really fit into the team’s plans (or not)?
The Turcotte narrative: “He’s from Chicago, the Hawks love Chicago players, he’s a center. USNTDP cred. Boom.” The problem there is with as much as is riding on this pick, a Chicago connection should be utterly meaningless one way or the other. And while the Hawks took Patrick Kane first overall out of the USNTDP, they took Jack Skille seventh overall out of the same program. Perspective.
The Cozens narrative: “He’s big and fast, something the Hawks need more of upfront.” But, big and fast doesn’t always translate to great in the NHL.
Every top player seems to have some soundbyte narrative, with varying amounts of validity attached to it. But the actual decision for the Hawks needs to be a lot more patient, considered and nuanced—because it has to be the best decision for the future of the franchise.
So sit back, take a deep breath and move away from the keyboard. The draft is still 15 days away. When the Blackhawks will draft…
Someone.
Comment below.