Setting realistic expectations for the Chicago Blackhawks’ trade deadline

Monday at 2 p.m. CDT marks the NHL’s annual trade deadline, a day which many fans eagerly anticipate each season. This year is of course no different, and Chicago Blackhawks fans in particular might have a lot to be looking forward to.

It is no secret the Blackhawks badly need to replenish their mostly barren cupboards, and the trade deadline will serve as newly minted General Manager Kyle Davidson’s first big opportunity to do so, and is one he needs to take full advantage of since he has a number of assets that should be moved in order to start building toward the future.

Before breaking down each player’s likelihood of being dealt and a potential return for each player, it is important to first analyze what the priority needs to be for the Blackhawks entering the deadline.

Simply put, there needs to be one goal—and one goal only—leading up to March 21: Asset maximization.

What exactly does asset maximization actually mean? That is a great question, and is one Davidson needs to be keenly aware of. Asset maximization means gaining any sort of net positive in a transaction. This can be accomplished in various ways depending on the franchise, so it is important to understand the Blackhawks’ true situation: Needing to build the franchise back up to being a Stanley Cup winner. That is the critical context Davidson needs to be working under moving forward, no matter what that requires in terms of personnel decisions. There are a number of different ways to view maximizing assets, and that largely depends on the asset itself combined with your goal for the asset.

One key component of this rebuild is Davidson cannot afford to be glued to any player for any specific reason. Every player—yes, EVERY player—can be had for the right return. Let’s not forget that the great Wayne Gretzky was traded TWICE in his illustrious career. So yes, even the “sacred cows” and the “rebuild cornerstones” can be moved—if the return is right. Now, that does NOT mean the Blackhawks should or will trade any given player in the organization, but Davidson at least needs to listen and assess any potential deal that comes across his desk, no matter how far-fetched it may seem. Doing his due diligence on transactions is a critical part of his job, and getting the Blackhawks back to Stanley Cup contention—something they are miles from currently—is his ultimate job responsibility.

With that in mind, Davidson needs to accurately determine how every asset in the organization fits into the grand scheme of getting the Blackhawks back to the promised land, and then act accordingly based on his judgements. Of course, there is so much more involved with this process than the average fan would like to admit, such as the fact the team still needs to sell tickets and merchandise, still needs NHL players playing NHL minutes, still needs to meet the salary cap floor and still needs veterans playing in key roles in order to help younger players properly develop. It is not as simple as trading away every established player for future assets and just playing a bunch of “kids” in order to bottom out. That can—and should—be done to an extent, but again, there still needs to be some degree of structure on an NHL team during a rebuild.

So, with the context established, let’s dig through the current NHL roster to realistically assess where each player stands in the short term and long term. While AHL players and prospects could be dealt, the return would likely be marginal at best, so it is not really worth breaking down those players in particular.

Forwards

Henrik Borgstrom — $1 million cap hit through 2022–23

Borgstrom is a player who likely would not have much value at the trade deadline since he would likely not even crack the lineup for a playoff team. Being under contract through the end of next season, expect Borgstrom to be back competing for a full-time spot in the Hawks’ lineup next season, with that likely determining his long-term future with the organization.

Ryan Carpenter — $1 million cap hit, pending unrestricted free agent

Carpenter is the first player on the list seemingly destined to have a new address next week. As a player who knows his role—a defensively responsible fourth-liner capable of winning face-offs—Carpenter is the type of player playoff teams enjoy cheaply adding at the deadline as they gear up for a Cup run. Though the return will not be much, perhaps a sixth-round draft pick at best, Carpenter’s value is highest to the Blackhawks by being dealt at the deadline and hoping that draft pick can turn into a future piece of the rebuild, as he would likely move to greener pastures this summer as a free agent anyway. As such, take what you can get and run.

Kirby Dach — $925,000 cap hit, pending restricted free agent

Dach is the first player to fit into the “no sacred cows” category. Frankly, there is little to no chance of him being dealt at the deadline, but he needs to be one of those players who Davidson takes a long look at this summer in order to determine what Dach will truly provide for the franchise down the road. If Dach can become a legitimate top-six NHL player down the road, then he is very likely a piece the team will keep. If there is cause for concern about Dach’s future, it would be extremely wise for Davidson to cash out on the value Dach has in order to maximize the asset. Again, that is not an endorsement for moving him, just a recognition of what the ultimate focus needs to be. All that said, expect Dach back in the fall competing for a permanent top-six role, and hopefully being able to truly and properly fill it.

Alex DeBrincat — $6.4 million cap hit through 2022–23

Another of the “sacred cows,” DeBrincat will very likely not be leaving Chicago any time soon, which is perfectly fine. He is certainly young enough to envision him still being a high-end player by the time the Hawks are back in the playoffs and will likely be one of the main faces of the franchise through the rebuild. But again, the focus during the rebuild needs to be asset maximization. If another team presents a massive haul in return for DeBrincat, Davidson has to strongly consider it. The likelihood of that happening is probably slim, so get used to enjoying DeBrincat for the foreseeable future.

MacKenzie Entwistle — $800,000 cap hit through 2023–24

Entering an extension next season, Entwistle is a player similar to Borgstrom who would not really offer much value to a playoff team at the deadline. Entwistle likely has a bit more safe of a position with the organization moving forward given the two-year contract extension he received, but will likely never be more than a bottom-six role player, which is fine. Entwistle is young enough where he could still be a viable depth option when the team returns to prominence, or he could end up being similar to Carpenter and being flipped for a mid-late draft pick at a future deadline. Regardless, he likely will not be going anywhere soon.

Brandon Hagel — $1.5 million cap hit through 2023–24

Ah, now we are talking. Perhaps the most hotly contested and debated Blackhawks player in terms of the 2022 trade deadline, Hagel is the ultimate question mark in terms of asset maximization. Let me first say that I truly do love Hagel. Originally a sixth-round draft pick of the Buffalo Sabres, the Hawks signed Hagel as an unsigned free agent in 2019 having given up nothing to acquire him. Talk about a return on investment. Hagel has blossomed into a fan favorite capable of doing literally everything for his team—all at a low cap hit—which is exceedingly desirable and valuable for a contending team.

There are certainly two sides of the coin here. One the one hand, Hagel is just 23 years old and has quickly risen through the lineup to be a go-to player, having already lit the lamp 21 times this season. With his youth, one could certainly envision Hagel being another face of the franchise during the rebuild and still being a contributor upon the Hawks rising back to prominence. However, players of his type oftentimes struggle with durability as their careers progress (see: Shaw, Andrew), so that is one thing to take into serious consideration here.

On the flip side, the return for Hagel right now rumored to have already been turned down by the Blackhawks is a first-round pick and a prospect. Based on the return for Tyler Toffoli, that return would seem to be accurate given the market. For a team starving for quality prospects and future assets, that is an extremely difficult return to say no to for a player who would ultimately be a third-liner on a Stanley Cup team. Can you actually turn down two quality future assets for a third-line winger? Can you actually turn down those assets when you realistically should be able to at worst replace Hagel’s value with that late first-round pick? Again, I truly do love Hagel, I really do, but that would be an awfully tough pill to swallow entering a rebuild. It is a tough decision, but that is why Davidson is paid the big bucks. While I do not think the Blackhawks would necessarily regret keeping Hagel, his value will likely never be higher than it is right now. He needs to be a player the team either keeps through his prime or moves now; anything outside of that is poor asset management. Moving Hagel for a quality return is the epitome of asset maximization, though it sounds like the Hawks do plan to keep him in the fold.

Tyler Johnson — $5 million cap hit through 2023–24

Back to much simpler answers, Johnson likely will not be going anywhere for the foreseeable future given his contract. Johnson seems destined to be one of those players who will be a veteran to lean on for legitimate NHL minutes through the rebuild, and that is fine. Not much to see here.

Patrick Kane — $10.5 million cap hit through 2022–23

Oh, there is so much to debate here, but the fact of the matter is, right or wrong, Kane will not be going anywhere unless he wants to. Short of something drastically changing in the coming days, Kane will not be dealt at the deadline, which would push his trade window to the draft at the earliest. Of course, moving Kane would be the largest possible pill to swallow for the organization financially, but he is by far the most valuable asset the team has, and again, with the focus on asset maximization, moving Kane within the next year would work wonders toward truly rebuilding the Blackhawks. Some would argue the team cannot truly rebuild without moving him, and it is difficult to disagree. Sure, Kane would likely still be a quality player in four or five years, but by not moving him, the team would be prolonging the rebuild and likely guaranteeing not winning another Cup during Kane’s playing career. It will be tough, but the bullet has to be bitten at some point.

Jujhar Khaira — $975,000 cap hit through 2022–23

Khaira has been injured for much of the season, but is similar to Carpenter in the sense he is a reliable veteran fourth-liner that teams know they can count on come playoff time. Expect Khaira to be next year’s Carpenter, being dealt at the 2023 trade deadline for a late pick. To give Hawks fans a comparable they can relate to, the team acquiring Khaira next year will be looking at their version of the Blackhawks acquiring Andrew Desjardins back in the day.

Dominik Kubalik — $3.7 million cap hit, pending restricted free agent

Kubalik is a prime example of poor asset management. Kubalik’s value was sky high after a wildly successful 30-goal rookie campaign, but has sharply dropped since he has returned back to Earth in the last couple of seasons. Still, Kubalik is a capable goal scorer who can slot into a playoff lineup in a depth role, and depth scoring is critically important for playoff success. As such, Kubalik would be a player fans should expect could be dealt ahead of the deadline. While the Hawks could opt to keep him around for some depth scoring of their own, it seems like Kubalik has fallen out of favor in Chicago, so just cashing out on the asset might make the most sense both in the short and long term. The return will not be nearly what it would have been in the offseason of 2020, but the Hawks should still manage a decent return and are apparently asking for a second-round pick, though I would say a third-round pick for Kubalik is more realistic.

Philipp Kurashev — $842,500 cap hit, pending restricted free agent

Kurashev falls into a similar category as Entwistle, being a player with a fairly safe long-term future in Chicago. The Hawks likely hoped Kurashev would take a step forward this season, but it did not come. Still, Kurashev will likely be around for the foreseeable future, likely fitting in the lineup as a reliable two-way third-liner with the ability to slot up higher if needed.

Sam Lafferty — $750,000 cap hit, pending unrestricted free agent

Lafferty is actually an intriguing case. He is a depth forward likely in the prime of his career, but it seems like the Hawks like him and he has actually started heating up a bit of late. While he likely would not bring much of a return, capitalizing on the hot streak might make the most sense from the asset maximization standpoint, especially since Lafferty likely would not be playing a notable role by the time the Blackhawks are through their rebuild. If the team does move on from Lafferty at the deadline, something in the range of a fifth- or sixth-round pick is probably reasonable to expect. Still though, with the team seemingly liking what he offers, do not be surprised if he sticks around past the deadline and re-signs in the offseason.

Dylan Strome — $3 million cap hit, pending restricted free agent

Love him or hate him, Strome has quickly turned around his season with an impressive hot streak entering the deadline, and what perfect timing. The team has reportedly been trying to find a suitor for a year now without luck, but his surge might just change that. However, as time has worn on, it has become evident Strome would hold a different role with the Hawks than he would with a contending team, and the potential problem with that is most teams likely know Strome is not really suited for being a third-line player, which is where he would likely slot in on a contender. He is the type of player who needs to be playing big minutes with quality players in order to produce, and that is probably not something a contending team could provide him. The Blackhawks are reportedly asking for a second-round pick in return for Strome, though a third-round pick is probably more realistic. But given that, is it even worth it to move him for that type of return? If Strome can be an affordable top-six guy during the rebuild, that might not be the worst thing to just keep him, especially with his obvious chemistry with DeBrincat and Kane. Again, the Hawks need NHL players playing NHL minutes during the rebuild, and that is something Strome could provide. But, if they do find a suitor and move him, you will not find anyone complaining here.

Jonathan Toews — $10.5 million cap hit through 2022–23

Toews’ situation is similar to Kane’s in the sense he will not be going anywhere unless he wants to, plain and simple. Also similar to Kane, a deal would likely not happen until the draft at the earliest. But, unlike Kane, there would not be nearly as big of a market for Toews should he want to move on. His health concerns are very legitimate, and that does not even begin to factor in the monstrous cap hit. Even at half retained, there likely would not be a huge return coming Chicago’s way given he would probably be a third-line center on a contending team. While it is possible Toews could move on one day, it is probably more realistic for Toews to finish his esteemed career as a Blackhawk, whenever that might be, and it could very well be sooner rather than later.

Defensemen

Calvin de Haan — $4.55 million cap hit, pending unrestricted free agent

This might be among the easier decisions Davidson has at the deadline. Similar to Carpenter, de Haan is the type of player contending teams crave at the deadline. De Haan is a reliable, defense-first defenseman who is willing to put his body on the line to get the job done, something every Cup team needs. It is highly likely de Haan would not re-sign with the team, so cashing out on him now is the only rational choice here. While it may require the Hawks to retain some of his cap hit in order to receive a quality return, that is something they should eagerly welcome. The reported ask is a second-round pick, and that could feasibly happen if the Blackhawks did retain half of his cap hit, but expecting a third-round pick is probably more realistic for the veteran blueliner.

Erik Gustafsson — $800,000 cap hit, pending unrestricted free agent

The Blackhawks managed to deal Gustafsson at the trade deadline once before. If another team is willing to give the Hawks literally anything for him this time around, Davidson needs to accept and hang up the phone before the other team changes their mind. It is either sayonara now or in the offseason, so if an asset can be had, great. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, again.

Caleb Jones — $850,000 cap hit, pending restricted free agent

The younger Jones is likely a player the Blackhawks plan to have around for a while, which is fine. He is a young, serviceable bottom-pairing guy at a cheap cap hit. Nothing wrong with that, but not much to see here, either.

Seth Jones — $9.5 million cap hit through 2029–30

The elder Jones has been solid for the Hawks this season, but will always be judged in light of the gargantuan package then-general manager Stan Bowman gave up to acquire him at the 2021 NHL Entry Draft. Yes, the Blackhawks badly needed a No. 1 defenseman, but mortgaging the future entering a rebuild to acquire one was not the way to do it. Jones will be a valuable piece for the Hawks for many years to come, but they had better hope they will be back to contending while Jones is still playing at a high level.

Jake McCabe — $4 million cap hit through 2024–25

McCabe is one of those players where you kind of just throw your hands up and ask “Why?” because you just are not sure what to make of him. As has been said earlier, the Blackhawks will need NHL players playing NHL minutes during the rebuild, and that is precisely what he will do.

Connor Murphy — $4.4 million cap hit through 2025–26

Murphy has developed into a quality blueliner for the Hawks, though like Jones, he will always be tied to the trade made to acquire him. Despite that, Murphy will be another quality piece moving forward. It seems likely he will be in Chicago for a while, though entertaining the idea of cashing out on him sometime in the next couple of years might not be the worst thing, either. He would certainly be on the decline by the time the Hawks are regular playoff contenders, so in the name of asset maximization, it would make sense to move him eventually.

Riley Stillman — $1.35 million cap hit through 2023–24

Stillman is similar to Caleb Jones in the sense he is also a cheap 24-year-old bottom-pairing defender. The Blackhawks seem to like Stillman, so do not expect him to be leaving the organization any time soon. Not much to see here.

Alex Vlasic — $824,167 cap hit through 2023–24

The newest member of the Hawks is just getting his professional career started, so there is no reason to think he will be heading out the door in the near future. A physically imposing blueliner, it will be enjoyable to see if Vlasic can reach his potential and develop into a top-four defenseman capable of doing a bit of everything. If you want to read a bit more about Vlasic, check out my piece about his signing.

Goaltenders

Marc-Andre Fleury — $7 million cap hit, pending unrestricted free agent

Another hot-button topic leading up to the deadline is what will happen with the legendary netminder. You might be disappointed, but I am not going to waste much time here. A promise was made to Fleury that it would be his decision regarding a potential move at the deadline and the team intends to keep that promise. Right or wrong, that is the reality of the situation. Yell at clouds all you want, like our own Jeff Osborn has been doing. Obviously yes, from a rebuilding standpoint, moving Fleury and getting a solid return—such as, say, a first-round pick—would be hugely beneficial for the Blackhawks. If Fleury wants to stay for the rest of the season, that’s fine, too. The team got a year out of a legendary player and person, and there is value in that. Even though this is The Rink, not everything needs to be negative. If Fleury wants to move to a contender and the Hawks get some assets in return, wonderful. If he wants to stay for the homestretch, enjoy it. Simple as that.

Kevin Lankinen — $800,000 cap hit, pending unrestricted free agent

Like Lafferty, Lankinen might be an underrated name heading into the deadline, especially if Fleury wants to stay in Chicago. With teams looking for goaltending help, a dirt-cheap option like Lankinen might actually prove to be quite appealing at the deadline. Lankinen can provide NHL minutes both now and in the future for whichever team he finds himself on come March 22. If it is with the Hawks, he can likely be a tandem goalie through the rebuild, which is perfectly fine and good. If he is dealt, he might fetch the Hawks a mid-round pick, which, hey, that is more than what they gave up to get him (hint: nothing). Lankinen is very replaceable, so if the Hawks do have an offer of note for him at the deadline, they might as well pull the trigger and ensure they get something for him since he could theoretically walk this summer.

Recap

That was a lot of information, so let’s summarize. The players to really keep an eye on ahead of Monday’s trade deadline are the following: Carpenter, de Haan, Fleury and Kubalik. Maybe add in the likes of Hagel and Strome, too. And for those sneaky trade chips, maybe Lafferty and Lankinen. And Gustafsson, if anyone actually wants him. Outside of those names, everyone else is likely safe, at least for now. And that is not to say all of those players will be dealt; quite the contrary. If even half of those players are moved, it will have been an eventful deadline for Davidson and the Blackhawks.

Of course, being able to move some of those bigger chips and acquire some quality pieces for the future has to be the goal, and if a first-round pick for this year’s draft can be recouped, even better. Realistically, let’s hope for maybe a second-round pick and some mid-round picks. But regardless of the outcome, how Davidson handles this weekend will likely start to paint a picture of the future of the franchise, both for the short and long term, and that is certainly something Blackhawks fans can look forward to.