We are just three weeks away from the Chicago Blackhawks being on the clock at the 2019 NHL Entry Draft on June 21 in Vancouver. Since there has been no Stanley Cup Playoffs for the Blackhawks to distract many of us from the looming offseason, the discussions around free agency plans and who Chicago should draft with the third overall pick have been plentiful.
With new reports coming out over the weekend from the NHL Draft Combine in Buffalo, along with the actual results of the testing and interviews from the combine, it seems that the scope of the Blackhawks’ plans have begun to narrow ever so slightly. So let’s talk about what the Blackhawks are facing with their potential draft pick with everything that is in my brain about the No. 3 overall pick.
Byram to the rescue
What has been one of the biggest issues for the Blackhawks since their last Stanley Cup Playoff run? Defending. While injuries to Corey Crawford have forced Chicago to try to manage with less-than-Crawford-level goaltending, the core of the defense has not been up to the level of the 2013 or 2013–14 season since that time. Chicago in 2015 survived off a bionic performance from Duncan Keith and the last bit of top-end play left in Brent Seabrook‘s tank; Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya locking everyone down also helped, too.
None of those players are walking back through the doors of the Blackhawks’ locker room and the porous defense of the past two seasons needs to be addressed. While Keith and Seabrook can still produce at the NHL, they are not able to play up to their older versions of themselves anymore. Erik Gustafsson broke out last season as an offensive threat from the blue line, but at the same time was a liability when trying to defend in his own zone. Beyond those three, Chicago’s defensive group at the NHL/AHL level is currently full of bottom-pairing options and “maybes” outside of Henri Jokiharju.
Chicago has used their last three first round picks and a 2017 second round pick on defensemen by picking Nicolas Beaudin, Adam Boqvist, Jokiharju and Ian Mitchell, respectively. While none of these players have been proven at the NHL level yet—fully or at all—there is a great deal of potential and hype surrounding them. Still, one cannot bank that they will all be franchise-changers on their first day in the NHL.
Adam Boqvist skates during an OHL game this season. (Photograph courtesy of Chicago Blackhawks)
Jokiharju managed to hold his own in the NHL last season before being allowed to leave the team to play for Finland in the World Junior Championship and then being sent to the Rockford IceHogs to complete his season in the AHL, where he looked more than capable of playing major minutes. He hopefully factors to be in the conversation as a long-term option for the Blackhawks to rely on in their defensive core for years to come. Mitchell is returning to Denver this upcoming NCAA season and will lead the Pioneers as team captain. Beaudin will make his professional debut this season, likely with the IceHogs in the AHL.
Then there is Boqvist, the Blackhawks’ eighth overall selection in last year’s first round of the NHL Entry Draft. For a whole year, Boqvist was sold to the Chicago fanbase as the next player that the defense would be built around. An offensive threat with comparisons to Erik Karlsson, Boqvist was one of the last cuts in training camp prior to heading to the London Knights of the OHL last summer. While finding his place in the defensive rotation might be a chore for Blackhawks head coach Jeremy Colliton, Boqvist has a legitimate shot at playing in the NHL this upcoming season, if in fact his defensive game has come around to the point where he is more along the lines of Karlsson and not Gustafsson.
Bowen Byram of the Vancouver Giants carries the puck. (Photograph courtesy of the Western Hockey League)
All this said, there are still too many questions surrounding the defensive problems facing the Blackhawks. But, could Bowen Byram be the answer?
Byram, ranked second among North American skaters behind Jack Hughes by NHL Central Scouting, is the unquestioned top defenseman in this year’s draft class. Hailing from Cranbrook, British Columbia, Byram is one of the youngest players in the class, turning 18 years old on June 13, just a week ahead of the draft. Playing for the Vancouver Giants of the WHL this season, Byram was the go-to defenseman for the eventual WHL runners-up. Playing in 67 games this season, he tallied 71 points and ranked 31st overall in the league and third overall among defensemen in the WHL. His 26 points in 22 WHL Playoff games led the league in the postseason.
Bowen Byram speaks to the media at the NHL Draft Combine in Buffalo. (Photograph courtesy of NHL.com)
No doubt, the spotlight shined brighter on Byram as the WHL season went along. He came into the WHL postseason as one of the top draft prospects for teams in the lottery range and his performance for the Giants forced his name right into position behind Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko as a potential pick for the Blackhawks at third overall.
With Chicago’s deficiencies at defense, on the surface, picking Byram looks like a slam dunk. But a deeper dive shows that, while he could arguably be ready for the NHL next season, the Blackhawks could run into organizational issues with too much of a good thing being a bad thing.
Byram has said himself that he feels ready to play in the NHL next season. Confidence in himself and his game are admirable traits for a player of his age, especially if he is going to be drafted by a team that wants to plug him into their NHL roster right away. If the Blackhawks are one of those teams that believe he can play in the NHL next season and plan on playing him in that role, the defensive group at the NHL level and the prospect pool becomes even more crowded. Would Chicago actually consider playing three defensemen all under the age of 20 in the same year? That is highly unlikely.
So the waiting game then begins with the defensive prospect group as a potential Beaudin, Boqvist, Byram, Jokiharju, Mitchell buildup becomes too much of a good thing. There are only so many roster spots and, in the next three years, it seems unlikely all five of those players would be on the roster since they all play similar styles and are all within an inch and a few pounds here or there of being the same build. Finesse and skill on defense can only bring you so far in the NHL; there needs to be a variety of styles of play and there needs to be a physical element on the blue line. Just take a look at the 2019 Stanley Cup Final between the Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues: a blueprint of teams built with a mix of finesse and physicality on both ends of the ice. Chicago might run into a situation in which a defensive prospect would need to be dealt in order to fit and fill the range of needs within the organization. Dennis Gilbert cannot be your only physically engaged defenseman.
Byram is projected to be a game-changer. There is no doubt he was relied on as the go-to defenseman for Vancouver, regularly logging near 30 minutes per night down the postseason stretch. His future as a potential top-pairing defenseman in the NHL should not be questioned. But, for the Blackhawks, there might bigger fish to fry when it comes to addressing future organizational needs.
The next “it kid”
Bouncing off that last thought, we look into the other names circulating around the Blackhawks’ potential No. 3 overall selection and they are all forwards.
Blackhawks director of scouting Mark Kelley said they've narrowed the No. 3 pick down to six guys. No, he didn't name them. I'm told that Byram, Turcotte, Caufield and Zegras are among them, which is no surprise.
— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) May 31, 2019
Already touching on Byram, the group beyond him includes forwards Alex Turcotte, Trevor Zegras and Cole Caufield. Also using deductive reasoning, one can throw in a name like centerman Dylan Cozens, as he has also been heavily rumored and speculated to be on the radar for the Blackhawks with the third overall pick.
I will not spend too much time on Turcotte, as I have already made my pitch here, if you have not read it yet.
Alex Turcotte speaks to the media at the NHL Draft Combine in Buffalo. (Photograph courtesy of Harry Scull Jr./Buffalo News)
What can be said about Turcotte is that he seems to have all the makings of a player that a franchise could hinge their next decade on. Scouts have likened his game to that of current Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews and Bruins star Patrice Bergeron, so, that is good company to be mentioned with.
Turcotte prides himself on his ability to excel at both ends of the ice and being a fierce competitor. If Chicago is looking to load their center depth with a player who has the potential to take the reigns over from Toews as the go-to man down the middle to play in all situations and be the top-line center, the Illinois native might be the perfect pick for Chicago.
Alex Turcotte of the U.S. National Team Development Program makes a pass during a game this season. (Photograph courtesy of Rena Laverty/USNTDP)
One of the more productive players in the U.S. National Team Development Program this season, despite missing time due to illness and injury, Turcotte will play one season at the University of Wisconsin next year alongside fellow USNTDP teammate Cole Caufield.
Sick. On Wisconsin.
Turcotte will have time to mature physically and fill out his 5-foot-11.25, 185-pound frame, along with taking a year to continue sharpening his skills and being ready to make the jump to the NHL for the 2020–21 season.
Prototype pivot
Speaking of perfect fits, the Blackhawks have an opportunity to address their lack of dynamic depth at the center position with a pick of a different player out of the WHL. Dylan Cozens has it all when it comes to a prototypical centerman in the NHL: size, skill, skating ability. Cozens played his second season in the WHL with the Lethbridge Hurricanes this year, skating in 68 games and totaling 84 points. Cozen ranked tied for ninth in the league in scoring, and his 34 goals ranked in the top 25 of the WHL.
At 6-foot-3.25 and weighing in at 185 pounds, Cozens already has the frame to be a presence down the middle in the NHL, and with a bit of time in an NHL training program, could add some pounds to solidify him as a hybrid finesse-power forward that is becoming a prized possession in the NHL.
Dylan Cozens speaks to the media at the NHL Draft Combine in Buffalo. (Photograph courtesy of NHL.com)
While defense is the biggest glaring hole in the Blackhawks’ roster that needs addressing, the biggest hole in the organization is their forward depth, primarily at the center position. Currently looking at what is in the organization down the middle, the Blackhawks are touting Evan Barratt, Philipp Kurashev, Mikael Hakkarainen, Tim Soderlund and Jake Wise to name just a few. While Barratt has been projected to be a potential middle-six centerman, that is not enough to hang your hat on if you are the Blackhawks. Adding Dylan Strome this season turned out very well in the half season he played in Chicago and the hope is that he continues to build upon his 2018–19 campaign. Adding Cozens with the third overall pick immediately puts him at the top of the list for the Blackhawks in their forward prospects rankings, as would pretty much any of the forwards mentioned here, if they are picked with the third pick by Chicago.
Dylan Cozens skates with Team Canada. (Photograph courtesy of Codie McLachlan/CP)
Cozens has the ability to jump to the NHL next season, too. It is not absolutely necessary for the third overall pick to come into the NHL lineup right away, as Chicago is building a roster that so far this offseason looks like a one-year holdover plan with the additions of players like Dominik Kubalik and Anton Wedin. With a bottom-six forwards group chalk-full of “maybes,” Cozens could find himself with a shot to come right into the Blackhawks camp and win himself a starting role. If not, he returns to Lethbridge for another year of seasoning in the WHL and comes into the 2020–21 season with a wide-open shot at the NHL.
Not quite ‘towers of power’
When talking about “shots,” you either come up with Lil’ Jon or in the case of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, you think of Cole Caufield. All this kid does is score goals. In 99 combined game with the USNTDP in 2018–19, Caufield scored 115 goals and tied the U18 World Junior record for goals in a tournament with 14 in seven games played. He tied Alexander Ovechkin‘s 14 goals and Ovechkin played an extra game than Caufield did in the tournament. Impressive.
With a knack for the back of the net like Caufield’s, there would be no question that he should be a top target within the top five picks. For Chicago, scoring goals last season was not an issue, as they finished eighth in goals per game with a 3.26 marker. What is holding Caufield back from possibly being thought of as a lock to go in the top three picks is his size. At 5-foot-7.25 and 165 pounds, Caufield’s on-ice abilities and stature have labeled him as Alex DeBrincat 2.0. With the Blackhawks holding the third overall pick and Caufield’s prowess for scoring, would a second under-sized sniper wing fit into the Chicago lineup?
Cole Caufield speaks to the media at the NHL Draft Combine in Buffalo. (Photograph courtesy of Hickling Images)
Caufield believes in his abilities to score from anywhere on the ice. Never seeing a shot he did not like, his comparisons to Chicago’s DeBrincat ring true. Coming into the 2017–18 season, DeBrincat got off to a slow start, but began to find his game and showed off his abilities to find space in the NHL and fire quality shots on net. His skillset only shone brighter in 2018–19, tallying 41 goals, ranking second on the team behind Patrick Kane‘s 44.
DeBrincat’s found a renewed chemistry with former Erie Otters teammate Dylan Strome when the Blackhawks added Strome midway through the season. Both of those players will hopefully duplicate and build upon their pairing last season—for the Blackhawks sake and their own—as they are both entering contract years without extensions at this point in the offseason. As it looks, Chicago has their fit for DeBrincat in their lineup.
As it would pertain to Caufield, his NHL-readiness would come around at least to the 2020–21 season, as he is slated to play at least one season at the University of Wisconsin with fellow USNTDP teammate Alex Turcotte.
Again, sick. On Wisconsin.
Cole Caufield celebrates a goal with Team USA. (Photograph courtesy of the USHL)
If Caufield improves his strength and matures physically for another year, there should be no doubts that he could hang in the NHL, given DeBrincat as the blueprint for that type of player. Again it comes down to if Chicago could succeed having two of those small-sized players in their forwards group.
Certainly Caufield believes it would be a mistake if the Blackhawks did not select him third overall.
Asked Cole Caufield what would be his elevator pitch to convince the Blackhawks to draft him.
"You'll regret it if you don't."
— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) June 1, 2019
But again, looking at the true holes in the Blackhawks’ formula trying to get them back to the playoffs and back to truly contending for the Stanley Cup again, one looks to the blueprints set by the Blues and Bruins in this year’s Cup Final: a fine blend of skill, size, flash and physicality.
If the Blackhawks were to have both DeBrincat and Caufield in the same lineup, there would have to be a sizable change to counteract their lack of stature in the forwards group. These two are players that thrive when they are able to find space in the opposition and fire pucks on net. If they cannot find that space, it is difficult to create it on their own at their size.
What is redeeming about Cauifield, as it is with DeBrincat, is the willingness to get dirty. He plays without fear of contact and is willing to go into the corners for pucks and battle. Whether he wins the majority of those battles is another discussion, but his ability to go to those areas is a trait that scouts and coaches want to see.
Catching Zs
Finally, rounding out the major attractions for the Blackhawks with the third overall pick is USNTDP forward Trevor Zegras. Heading to Boston University next season, Zegras is heralded as possibly the best puck-moving player in the draft class. In his time with the USNTDP, Zegras is over a point-per-game player and has tallied 160 assists in 185 career games in the red, white and blue.
Trevor Zegras speaks to the media at the NHL Draft Combine in Buffalo. (Photograph courtesy of NHL.com)
Stating that he modeled his game after Blackhawks forward Patrick Kane when he was growing up, Zegras’ on-ice game mirrors that of Chicago’s star winger. While players like Cozens and Turcotte fill the need for Chicago down the middle in the prospect pool, Zegras would be one of, if not the top wing prospect in Chicago’s system, as I see his game translating to the wing in the NHL. His playmaking ability and his skating make him an intriguing pick for the Blackhawks should they consider adding talent to their forward depth.
While not being touted as highly as Turcotte or Cozens, if the Blackhawks are sold on Zegras being their pick, they may entertain the option of trading down in the draft and selecting him later in the lottery picks. Chicago could find a trade partner that has two selections in the first round like the Buffalo Sabres with the seventh overall pick and the Blues’ first-round pick, or potentially the Colorado Avalanche with the fourth and 16th picks in the first round. If the Blackhawks are certain on Zegras and feel he will be available at a later pick, they could use that third overall selection as bait.
Trevor Zegras of the US National Team Development Program skates with the puck. (Photograph courtesy of Rena Laverty/USNTDP)
Should that be the route the Blackhawks take, they could find Zegras and another mid-to-late round prospect to either bolster the defense, like Victor Söderström, Alex Vlasic or Cam York, or get another forward to load their prospect depth for the future like Raphaël Lavoie or Ryan Suzuki.
Whatever the Blackhawks’ plan for the third overall selection is, they have their options. Moving up in the lottery was one of the greatest gifts the hockey gods could have bestowed upon the organization and now it is up to Stan Bowman and the front office to “hit” with their third overall selection. Although it is really a stretch to say that there is a so-called “wrong” move to make with the third overall pick, my two cents is that the Blackhawks use the pick and select Turcotte.
Chicago does not need to necessarily draft with 2019–20 in mind. If they want a player with the chance to plug and play in the NHL, they have options. If they believe they can be patient for one more season and let their chips fall for 2020–21, they again have their options. Suffice to say, June 21 in Vancouver cannot come around soon enough.