Get ready. As surprising as last summer was, the one that lies immediately ahead could provide an even more bumpy ride.
The only thing we do know at this point is that Stan Bowman and Joel Quenneville will be back next year—and everything else is subject to change.
Starting from the broadest of perspectives, it’s hard to say whether the Hawks are in full or partial rebuild mode, or if there’s an actual belief/confidence that moves here and there can elevate the team back into Cup contention.
And while I haven’t heard this specifically, I’m not sure the team knows either.
Whither Crow?
The big variable is the health and long-term prognosis for Corey Crawford. While some take umbrage at any suggestion his health issue is anything but the concussion issues that have been reported, rumors of other issues continue to fly. Either way, doesn’t matter, whatever’s going on with Crawford was enough to keep him out of action for nearly the last four months of the season. He’s also going to turn 34 this year.
A healthy and ready-to-go Crawford makes a return to contention plausible—not necessarily likely. But certainly, it’s a big box checked, allowing the team to focus its efforts this offseason elsewhere.
If Crawford can’t play, or If he is diminished, then the task of a quick adjustment and return to glory becomes pretty much impossible—regardless of potential LTIR dollars.
And the cap
By numerous Twitter estimations, the Hawks will have some cap room to work with this summer—perhaps quite a bit. Much of that depends on where the cap eventually settles, some resolution of Marian Hossa’s contract, and even what happens with Crawford.
But even assuming Stan Bowman has a lot of money to work with, keep in mind the following. Free agency is expensive, especially so if the cap goes up a great deal. So will salaries. It’s simple market dynamics.
Further, the Hawks have a long list of needs. To varying degrees, rookies Alex Debrincat, Jan Rutta and David Kampf have worked themselves into the picture for next year. Youngsters like Anthony Duclair Andreas Martinsen, Vince Hinostroza, Jordan Oesterle, John Hayden and Erik Gustafsson also appear to be pieces that fit the puzzle next year—maybe.
Reality bites
The truth is 33-39-10 is a dreadful record—and accurately reflects the quality of the talent on the roster.
There’s a raging debate over whether Joel Quenneville has “lost the room,” but in all likelihood, the “engine” that will drive this team anywhere next year remains the veteran core of Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook, and Brandon Saad. Factor a healthy Crawford and Debrincat in there as well. The point is, Quenneville has been to the top of the mountain with most of those players—more than once.
And it’s not to say that the supporting cast of youngsters is no good, it’s just that there remain some missing pieces, and some of the youngsters were asked to do more this year than they were ready to do.
What is missing
For all the projections about Rutta as a top 4 defenseman, or the pleasant surprise of Oesterle, or Gustafsson’s obvious offensive ability, this Hawk defense doesn’t suppress shots well, allows opposing forwards to do business right in front of the Hawk goalie, and gets caught out of position—a lot.
It’s not enough—and kind of a waste of time—to expect Crawford to resume his role of “hiding” the deficiencies of a poor blueline this season.
Sure you can hope that over the summer, Connor Murphy becomes more consistent, Rutta’s style can change to be more effective along the wall, Gustafsson stops being a turnover machine and Oesterle can clear the front of the net going up against players who outweigh him by 30 pounds. Or that Keith and Seabrook can go into the Way Back Machine and become what they were three years ago.
Or Bowman can use some of that newly minted cap space and acquire a legitimate young two-way defenseman or two.
As pointed out earlier, the cost for that in free agency would likely be high. And the pickings are slim this year to boot.
So what about the draft, or a trade?
The draft
In the draft, if the Hawks were fortunate enough to win the draft lottery, the obvious choice is a guy who could step in tomorrow and upgrade the blueline, Swedish defender, Rasmus Dahlin.
However, the Hawks likely won’t win it. But they will likely pick in the top ten for the first time since 2007, and the franchise can’t afford to miss on this pick.
Keith, Seabrook, Toews and Crawford will all be 30-35 years old on draft day.
So it would make sense that the Hawks grab one of a handful of other fine defense prospects (Evan Bouchard, Adam Boqvist, Quinn Hughes, etc) or the best projectable, true center prospect available with their pick, and perhaps a goalie with Nashville’s pick near the end of the first round.
But after Dahlin, it’s highly unlikely any other draft prospect is truly NHL ready this year. And maybe you just draft the highest upside player, regardless of position.
Trades
For years, the Hawks always seemed to be looking for a 2nd line center. Then for a couple of years, it was the search for the elusive top 6 left wing. Now the focus may be shifting back to center, where it can be argued perhaps two of the current roster’s 4 centers are really almost like wings playing center (Artem Anisimov to a degree and Nick Schmaltz quite a bit).
Viktor Ejdsell appears to need some time in Rockford.
Both Anisimov and Schmaltz are “responsible” defensively as you might want a center to be, but Anisimov is ponderously slow and Schmaltz is pretty much a pushover when he has to go mano a mano around the net with larger centers and defensemen—which the Western Conference has in abundance.
Further, both are somewhere between mediocre and atrocious in the faceoff circle.
There are “experts” out there who have claimed that “faceoffs don’t matter.” And, in a larger, aggregate sense, they aren’t the most important statistic to ponder.
But situationally, they are incredibly important.
If you’re going to be an effective possession style team, you need to possess the puck. Conversely, late in close games or killing penalties, defensive zone draws are crucial.
There are other schools of thought out there that Anisimov is probably overpaid as now a third line center (agreed), and that Schmaltz will improve physically and in the faceoff circle (not so agreed).
Schmaltz may improve, and he may not. After all, three NHL organizations have invested heavily in Anisimov improving in the dot—and he hasn’t.
So the Hawks may need another dynamic, competent, 2-way centerman. They don’t grow on trees, and as with the defenseman they absolutely need this year, the free agency pickings are slim.
And they may need another goalie.
So that leaves you with the trade market.
Where the Hawks remain strong and deep is at wing, or “wings playing center.” Patrick Kane, Brandon Saad, Alex Debrincat, Anthony Duclair, Vince Hinostroza, arguably Schmaltz, and the Hawks played the promising (though not NHL ready) Dylan Sikura at wing in his brief tenure this spring.
The Hawks could deal from that strength to shore up center and/or defense. Kane’s not going anywhere, and you’re not getting much at this point for Duclair. So an upgrade elsewhere could cost you something “dear” like Hinostroza, Schmaltz, Debrincat or even Saad (perhaps packaged with some other spare parts, prospects or picks).
Bottom line, Bowman will have to give to get.
And we all should avoid falling into that familiar mindset that every trade of this or that popular Hawk player or prospect means purely subtraction. You don’t do a deal like that just to cut salary (not as much of an issue this offseason at all). You deal form depth/strength to add to areas in weakness and improve team chemistry.
And if you lack confidence based on Bowman’s past trades (which might be a legitimate concern) then we have another issue entirely.
These are just one man’s opinions—and in fact, there are a lot of ways the Hawks could go this summer. Another huge possible outcome is some permanent resolution of the situation with Hossa’s contract and cap space.
But the questions themselves are seismic.
Questions
Retool or full rebuild?
Be patient with Murphy, Schmaltz, Duclair and others—or get what you can for them now to improve elsewhere?
How much more shelf-life do Seabrook, Keith, Toews and Crawford have?
What is Anisimov worth—with the Hawks or in trade elsewhere? After the (since verified) trade discussions between the Hawks and Blue Jackets for Anisimov were originally reported here on The-Rink.com, someone else later reported that all Columbus offered was a third round draft pick. That seems hard to believe when a third round pick is what the Hawks gave up for Tomas Jurco the season before.
Do the Hawks have a first string goalie this year? And if so, do they have a backup anywhere in their system?
Can this team get bigger, faster, meaner and equally or more skilled through a series of solid offseason moves—or is Bowman truly just a numbers guy, whose own number is up?
It should be interesting and we will report on it, and provide analysis, sharing the rumors as we hear them, too.
Please comment below.
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